So many stories the last few weeks, so too lazy to write a lot about any of them.  Am I the only one who sorta gets annoyed by how fast these things go by?  I never have time to read about any of them, and I have the Twitters, the Facebooks, the smart phones... I also have the house, the kids, the jobs...

Asked the editors if I could do a six pack of stories linked with beers, and they were down really don’t care all that much what I write about.  I took that as a yes.  No more chit chat, and fuck that jump break, let’s do it.

1.  Victory Golden Monkey - The way too easy too drink, way high alcohol beer that I warn all new craft beer drinkers to never drink at the end of the night.  They and their hangovers never listen.  It recently broke that baseball was looking to suspend a group of players linked to a random steroid clinic in Miami, including Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun.  The media did its best to make this a big deal, then finally realized the fans didn’t care all that much because...

a.  We already knew they were both doping.  Braun never denied actually doping or what was in his blood sample.  He got off on a “mishandling” technicality.

b.  No casual fan knows that Braun is probably a Top 10 player because he plays for an average team in Milwaukee.

The moral of this story?  The MLB testing policy is both effective and a joke at the same time.  Like the Monkey, it can be effective (drink early) and a joke (to your friends when you’re done the next day), at the same time.

2.  LaBatt Blue in a can - Always reminds me of home.  And my home town Tigers.  Ever since we resigned Valverde, I have been ranting, tweeting, screaming to friends on the phone about why we did this, and why the hell we are STILL running him out there.  How about this simple proposal?  Pry Papelbon from the Phillies, offering increasingly better prospects, depending how much of his contract they are willing to pay, up to Castellanos for picking up nearly the whole thing.  Every fan is willing to do this for a shot at a title.  You can’t tell me that our front office is even remotely close to confident in bringing Valverde in during a 3-2 game in Game 7 of the ALCS.  Come on.  

Shit, the last time I was watching a game he came in, the Tigers broadcasters were basically trying to convince themselves and the fans it would be okay... “his numbers are good, his numbers have been good.”  He gave up two home runs and allowed the tying run to the plate in a NON SAVE SITUATION.  When he comes in, you need at least 7 beers to get through it.  That’s where the Blue in a can comes in.

3.  Yards Saison - My favorite style of my favorite Philly beer, their summer ale.  Perfect for watching what’s left of this Phillies run die on the field this summer.  The only people who are in denial are the Phils front office and a few die hard fans (don’t Google that last Reuben interview, Phils fans).  Their farm system is a mess.  Admit the fans it’s time to rebuild.  You can get MLB ready prospects for Cliff Lee (to the Rangers) and Papelpon (see above), and solid prospects for Jimmy Rollins.  It’s time to let it go, sit back in the sun, and sip a Saison.

4.  Miller High Life - You don’t go to the High Life often, but it’s always good, kinda funny, and comes in at just the right time.  I was flipping the channels the other day, and came across The Cable Guy.  Freaking hysterical.  Loved it when I first saw it, loved it then.  Happened to come in at the best part of the movie, when Jim Carrey does his rendition of Somebody to Love.  And since the High Life always works, we’re gonna make that clip work here.  Take it away, Jim.

5.  Founders Kentucky Breakfast Stout - Highly sought after, rarely brewed.  Peeps will be $25 bucks just for a bottle.  Rumor has it it will be released again this year.  Relatedly, the wife and I hit the U.S. Open last weekend, knocking “attend a major” off our sports bucket list.  It was seriously amazing.  We went on Saturday, so it was even cooler watching it Sunday having seen everything and knowing where it was.  Highlight of the day - We were perched at 2 tee, with views of 4 green and 5 tee.  Most of the golfers would walk from 2 tee, straight down the fairway through the tee box.  Phil Mickelson actually went out of his way about 20 yards to walk through the rough to come over and wave and acknowledge the fans.  Awesome.  We got within touching distance of the players.  Perfect weather.  Highly recommend you do this one day.

And for you golfers out there... the term “no margin for error” takes a whole new meaning when you see it in person.  If you miss that sliver of a fairway, you are completely screwed.  And that’s before you try and putt on greens that literally have a valley running through the middle, U shaped.  Crazy.

6.  Bells Oberon - Unless this is your first time reading the blog or tweets, then you probably know this is my all time favorite beer.  The cuz was cool enough to pick up a case and split it with me, and I’ll be toasting many of them in a week or so when we get back to the D.  This one is in honor of Father’s Day, just wanted to wish the father’s out there a belated Happy Father’s Day.  ARG was kind enough to greet me with a vomit fit Saturday into Sunday, but she recovered enough to be able to swim with Daddy later that day.  Being a father is the greatest thing I have ever done or will do, and I thank my father, grandfathers, and friends for helping me be the best one I can be.  And a very special thank you to the wife, not only for suffering through pregnancy and childbirth to get our babies here, but for being a great mother, making me a better father, and generally tolerating me on a daily basis.  Cheers!

Because we can...

The LB clan is gonna be on vacation quite a bit the next few weeks - hitting the D and the Shore, friends visiting, golf with J.B., ARG’s birthday/more friends visiting... in other words, we’re going on a bit of a hiatus.  We’ll keep up the tweets and all, so get your content there if you wish.  Enjoy your summers, everyone.  GO TIGERS!!!  Hasta.

The D

Tourist Attraction, for reals

Over the past few weeks, Mojo and I have been exchanging texts and emails over a really remarkable book on the city of Detroit, "Detroit City is the Place to Be," by Mark Binelli.  Part way through this, Mojo emailed, "we need to get together, drink a few beers, and talk about this book."  We then realized there are very few things you could replace "talk about this book with" and not have this be an awesome idea.  But I digress...

I get a lot of questions in Philly about the D, what's it really like, are the pictures true, how did it get that bad... I imagine Mojo has gotten them in his worldly travels, too.  Mostly, these questions are out of sheer curiosity and sympathy for our city.  And I gotta give my Philly people a lot of credit, they have a lot of respect for our city.  I told a few people here they would get along with everyone in Detroit, since I think Philly and Detroit have a pretty similar culture.

One quote in the book really stood out to me, and I want to address it, both to inquire what my peeps in the D think, and to enlighten my Philly friends, too.  Mojo and Fah T were both gracious enough to offer their takes, too.  So if you want to skip through my dribble and get to people who can actually write, So we offer this instead of our usual MLB preview.  Though I threw my picks in, too, of course.  Here's the quote...

This Time, It Shouldn't Count

She's mad about this, too.  Easy, Madam Attorney General.

I actually had a different topic lined up for the first article not written by Janet Reno in awhile, especially since I have absolutely no interest in the MLB All-Star game or the 2011 Home Run Derby presented in crystal clear, high quality HD by State Farm.  Fun for the young fans, not the 30 somethings and up.  Unless you're in Vegas, then I'd gamble on it.

Anyways, watching Sportscenter this morning and came across this little nugget of a stat...

Thanks, Manny! Thanks, Barry!

With a special assist from Manny Ramirez, who successfully avoided the first 100 game suspension in baseball history (so little publicity from maybe the best right handed hitter of his generation) and Barry Bonds (a-hole who cost me tons of retirement cash by cheating/making the value of about 15 rookie cards I have of his about the same as Alex Avila), I get an excuse to re-post two of our more popular posts from the archives.

Talked steroids a bit back when Mark McGwire admitted to using, and recorded a podcast with a "baseball guy in the know."  He brought great knowledge, and many thanks again to him for doing the podcast.  Talked about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, who we thought would get in, etc., and you can get more detailed thoughts in the full post.

Check out the steriods podcast here.

In the meantime, you can read the full transcript of the steriods post below.  This is pre-"get to the point, LB" but well worth the read, as it was unanimously the most popular post we've done.  Check it out on ye ol' "read more" button.

New post next week.  Contact Logical Betting at logicalbetting@gmail.com and twitter.com/logicalbetting.

The Phillies Miss the Playoffs! Maybe...

We have EXCLUSIVE, breaking news here at Logical Betting!  You heard it here first, before ESPN, before Fox Sports, before… I hate when people brag about stuff like that.  Let's just get to it.  The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies HAVE NOT, we repeat, HAVE NOT YET won the 2011 National League Pennant!*

They haven't won yet, I swear!



162 games first, sir.  But thanks!



I know, shocking right? They’re actually going to make every single National League team play 162 games this year. Good for fantasy leagues everywhere.  Wait… what’s this? We have another BREAKING EXCLUSIVE!!! Wow, folks, what a day here at Logical Betting!

MLB Midseason Report

Summer, summer, summer time. Nearing the midway point in the MLB season, and it’s been a good one so far. All of the sudden pitching is dominating the sport, with 19 pitchers taking no hitters into the 7th inning as of 7/5/10. (Editor’s note – make that 20 with the Reds starter… Wood something, taking a perfect game into the 8th). Many theories going around about that, mixing between steroids, watered down lineups, injuries. I think it’s part steroids being less prevalent, amphetamines and greenies being banned, and just a natural cycle of defense starting to take over. It’s also time to bust out one of my fave sports trivia questions: what are the two days a year in which none of the four major sports is playing a game? Hint: they don’t fall on the same day every year, e.g., December 25th is Christmas. The two days occur at the same time every year, but not necessarily on the same date. Answer at the end.

So while the lazy days of summer/baby countdown are upon us, let’s check in on Logical Betting’s fearless predictions for the baseball season. Since this is a “report” of sorts, our unofficial sponsor will be the Colbert Report’s Sport Report. Really need to get back into that show. And a one, and a two, and…

AL Central (current standings/my pick) – standings entering Sunday 7/11/10.

1. Tigers (2nd), 2. White Sox (4th), 3. Twins (1st), 4. Royals (3rd), 5. Indians (5th).

I had the Royals as a sleeper, and that got out pretty good, but have since gone back to being the Royals. The Twins have not been able to hit for whatever reason. And the Indians have been the Indians. They should bring in Bob Uecker to call games, that’s the only way anyone is watching. If the White Sox hadn’t won something like 24 of 28 games, my beloved Tigers would be cruising. Dominating this weekend’s series with the Twins so far. Loving that. Hopefully my cousin is ripping his wife and in-laws who all grew up in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Go get ‘em, cuz, do it for all of us Tigers fans.

AL East

1. Ys (1st), 2. Rays (3rd), 3. Red Sox (2nd), 4. Blue Jays (4th), 5. Orioles (5th).

Toronto is having a nice year, playing .500 ball, which of course earns them a 4th place spot and no hope of the playoffs. They are launching balls out of the park at will, so at least fun to watch and could play spoilers in the division down the road. The Rays got out hot, then started to fade hard, and now have won 8 of 10 to get within a couple games of the lead. The Red Sox, aka the Boston Infirmary, are hanging around. I still like them if they can somehow sneak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Ys are humming along with the best record in the majors. If they had gotten Cliff Lee, I would have jabbed myself in the belly repeatedly with a spoon. They’ll probably get him in the offseason, but still. I do love how bad Joba has been, though. One of those prospects who was thought to be better cause he was a Ys prospect. See also, N**** D*** quarterbacks.

AL West

1. Rangers (3rd), 2. Angels (2nd), 3. A’s (4th), 4. Mariners (1st).

Oops. Yeah, so I liked Seattle. Hell, until the Lee trade I still liked their roster. I have no explanation why they are as bad offensively as they are. I told you about them Rangers, though, and with Lee on board and the resurgent Josh Hamilton, they could even be playoff contenders. Pitching is supposed to be their weakness, but they are currently 5th in the AL in ERA. Definitely winnable for them. The Angels are done, which is nice cause everyone is sick of them.

NL East

1. Braves (tie 2nd), 2. Mets (5th), 3. Phillies (1st), 4. Marlins (tie 2nd), 5. Nationals (4th).

I honestly don’t think the Mets are that good. R.A. Dickey? Seriously? The Phils are another team fighting off injuries, and if they can hang around, they are one of the top 2 teams in the NL, along with the Braves, who, with breakout years from Prado and Heyward, a resurgent Troy Glaus, and an already strong pitching staff, are looking like the class of the NL. Don’t be shocked to see those two in the NLCS, though I think the NL West would have something to say about that. Rumor has it the Nats are gonna limit Strausberg’s innings, and they have another great pitching prospect. Definitely a team on the way up. Good for them.

NL Central

1. Reds (2nd), 2. Cards (1st), 3 (tie). Cubs (5th), 3 (tie). Brewers (3rd), 5. Astros (4th), 6. Pirates (6th).

Not too shabby, eh? This is a two horse race, with the Reds taking a 2 game lead into the final days play before the break. The Reds are a pretty young team in general, so I wonder how long the kids will hang in there against the veteran Cards. Tough to beat that Carpenter-Wainwright one-two punch over the course of a whole year. The Cards just seem like the better team, and the Reds have won a lot of close games, this past weekend not withstanding. The Astros are worse than their record (that’s .409 ball), so I would flop them and the Cubs in my original picks, and hold the rest.

NL West

1. Padres (5th), 2. Rockies (3rd), 3. Dodgers (1st), 4. Giants (2nd), 5. Diamondbacks (4th).

Okay, I had the Dodgers “almost by default and the Padres as one of the worst teams in the league. 4 games separate 1-4, so this is anyone’s division. I hold by my Giants sleeper… if they could hit at all, they’d win the division by 5 games. But they can’t. The Padres pitching has been beyond sick. Also a young staff in general, so wonder about them, too. But they have the second best record in the NL, so you can’t overlook them. I’m going to stick with the Dodgers, but let’s just say I don’t have a lot of confidence. Probably the second best division in baseball right now. Actually, for fun, here are my “divisions standings” so far.

1. AL East, 2. NL West, 3. NL East, 4. AL Central, 5. AL West, 6. NL Central

Big drop off from 3-4 there. Interesting. Out of principle, I’ll stick with my Red Sox over Phillies World Series pick, but if I had a second team in each, I’d go with the Ys and Braves. Those are solid teams, save the Ys bullpen, which I’m sure Reggie will now email me with a list of reasons why they aren’t as bad as I make them out to be. Maybe not, but for 220 million or whatever their payroll is, I think it should be better. Anyways, here were my playoff predictions, and I quote:

AL – Red Sox over Twins, Ys over Mariners; Red Sox over Ys (completely out of principle, no way in hell do I pick the Ys, even though I think they’re the better team)

Not too shabby, other than the Seattle thing. If the Sox get healthy, they could still get there. I’m starting to like my Tigers more and more, though. They really have not played well and in all reality, shouldn’t be in first place. Me likes me omen. So let’s say Ys, Sox, Tigers, Rangers now.

NL – Phillies over Giants (5 game series with have of Philly standing ready to jump off the Ben Franklin Bridge during Game 5), Cardinals over Dodgers; Phillies over Cardinals.

Hmmmm… well. Yeah. The NL is a mess at the moment, so hard to rule any of that out. I think the Wild Card is coming out of the NL East now, probably the Phillies, even though two teams in the West have a better record. So I guess now I’m going with the Braves, Phils, Cards, and Dodgers. I’m not convinced with San Diego and Cincy, though I think Cincy is actually the better of those two teams.

And for the grand finale, my “random” picks, named famously for my Random Notes pieces, where you first heard LeBron was going to Miami. I am so sick of that already, and it’s only been a couple days. That said, the wife and I are going to be mini-season ticket holders for the Sixers if we can get a Miami game in there.

AL MVP – Alex Rodriguez (read my lips: MONSTER year) – hopefully you weren’t reading with your money, cause that one missed. The roids may have been more of a factor than we thought. I’m going with Miguel Cabrera, just because I want to and cause he’s having a good year. And it’s my blog, so even if he’s not the front runner, I’m gonna make him that way. Yes, I’m typing this early in the morning, it’s raining, and only on coffee number one. But he is an outside Triple Crown threat, so he’s as good a pick as any. Josh Hamilton has to be in that discussion, too, for the same reasons.

NL MVP – Albert Pujols (seriously, go see this guy play) – did you see him play yet? Shame on you. He’s still a candidate. If the Reds win the division, then I say Joey Votto, same with the Padres and Adrian Gonzalez. In reality, a pitcher should have a shot at this, since Johnson and Jimenez have been so good, but neither team is likely to win the division… well, maybe Colorado. Honestly, a pitcher isn’t winning, so let’s just move on.

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez (the kid is due) – well, he’s due, but he’s still due. He’s having a pretty good year, but probably not good enough with a 6-5 record. Jon Lester and David Price are your current frontrunners. Nod goes to whoever’s team makes the playoffs.

NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay (scary what he could do against NL teams) – this pick looked good until a month ago. Right now it’s a two horse race between Josh Johnson of Florida and Ubaldo Jimenez of Colorado, neither of whom most of you have heard of. Johnson is better of late, and has better overall numbers. Jimenez is 15-1 and threw a no-hitter. I’m leaning Jimenez for now, based on the win total, but this could go either way.

Teams better than you think: Rangers, Royals, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Marlins, Reds – Looks like I hit with a couple, missed a couple, couple ties. We’ll say I went 3-3-1.


Teams worse than you think: White Sox, Rays, Cubs, Mets, Indians – Well, airmailed the White Sox and Mets. Rays are hanging around, but I think the jury is still out. I’m saying 2-2-1 on this for now.

Mojo texted the other day that he’s considering getting the second half MLB package to break his soon-to-be child into baseball, specifically Tigers baseball, immediately. I’m considering the same, but given that one of our plasmas just went out, might be tough to convince the wife, especially since her Phillies are on every night. It’s been a great baseball season so far, and really looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. Grab and beer, relax, and enjoy the dog days of summer. But, before we go…

Quiz answer: the day before and the day after the MLB All-Star game are the only days none of the major sports have official games played. Cheers if you got it.

Replay in Baseball

I think I'm up to about 5 requests for a post on this topic, which in LB world, is like a 50% return rate. Henceforth, I provide my solicited opinion (for once) on the topic at hand during Game 5 of what has been an awesome Stanley Cup Finals. Seriously, if you're not watching, you're really missing out. Unofficially sponsored by ShopRite this evening, which is a local grocery chain out here, and whose bakery makes a damn good chocolate truffle cake, compliments of Mrs. J.B. Just a small benefit of living with a pregnant lady. A couple quicks notes on the "oops" perfect game, which obviously got us to this topic...

- Mojo has the following request for the blog: "Whenever referencing when someone f-ed up, it should be called a 'Joyce.'" He actually used this in conversation at breakfast this morning when he and his wife were coming through the area on their move to West Point (Mojo and LB living within 2 hours = more podcasts). C-BOST (committee for bleeping out sports things) is putting this on their agenda for next month, and it's looking pretty good cause C-BOST likes Mojo.

- To everyone's credit (except one person, which we will explain in a minute), this could not have been handled any better or with any more class. Jim Joyce deserves a lot of praise for admitting his error, and the Tigers, especially Gallaraga and Leyland, were extremely gracious about this (though it looked like Cabrera's anger management classes haven't been totally effective yet). This is the only reason why it hasn't been blown totally out of proportion. Random story... my dad was actually at the game, and said they could tell from their 2nd deck seats above first base that he was out. Joyce is actually a good umpire, worked a couple World Series and lots of playoff games. Just absolutely blew it. Sad, really, seems like a good guy.

- Bud Selig is an idiot. Just overturn the freaking call. You're going to enact replay within the next year. This guy is like Mr. Magoo, I swear. Thank God he already announced his retirement.

- This has nothing to do with baseball, but they just showed Michael Jordan standing with some friends during the Flyers/Blackhawks game, and in my unending quest to convince the wife that Jordan pushed off in Game 6 against the Jazz (Michael Jordan is her favorite athlete of all time, by far), I said, "I think Jordan just pushed off the guy next to him." The wife/soon-to-be mother's response? She gave me the finger while on the phone with her mom.

Now that I'm done not talking about replay in baseball, let's talk about replay in baseball. In sum, I am all for it. However, this has to be done with a lot of caution, since baseball is already slow, and we don't need umpires spending 5 minutes in a booth 3 times a game reviewing calls. So here's how I plan on setting it up when I'm in charge of the world. And yes, this will be high on my to-do list when I'm in charge.

1. No "manager challenges" ala the NFL. We don't have time, and I don't want to see red flags flying all over the diamond.

2. No challenging balls and strikes, and no putting some laser/computer generated machine to call balls and strikes. That is dumb. Besides, if we do that, the machines will eventually become self aware, and we'll either be at war against them (Terminator) or living in non-reality (the Matrix).

3. I can't believe I'm gonna say this, but the NHL has this right (in other words, Bettman had nothing to do with it). Set up a central body somewhere watching all the games and buzzing down to the home plate ump when they want to take a closer look at a play. Too many games, you say? How many close calls do you really think would be reviewed in a game? I bet it would be less than one a game. I would train the reviewers only to buzz if it were REALLY close or if there were an obvious blown call, ala the other night when the ump Joyced it. There you go, Mojo. I think C-BOST is going to approve/

4. Keep the home run review thing as is. It's working. Good for them.

The main arguments against replay (I think, because I really don't know anyone who is against it) are that it damages the purity of the game and the games will be longer. I handled the latter with my brilliant central body idea, and as for the purity of the game... how pure are you when you can have a perfect game ripped from the record books over something everyone, including the umpire, knows is an injustice? The precedent is already set with the home run replays, so you can argue "we don't to set precendent and start down the stereotypical slippery slope" Replay is going to happen within the next 12 months anyway, just turn this one over and make everything right. Though many have already pointed out that Gallaraga will probably be more famous for this than if he got the perfect game.

Baseball is the last of the "old white men running the sport" hold outs, and is slowly awakening to the fact it's the 21st century and we have this really neat thing called "technology." We promise, guys, it's a lot of fun, like hoola-hoops when you were kids. We'll keep watching the games, we'll keep loving the sport, and people who like to bitch will continue to bitch about the length of the game, then call in to sports talk radio making references to 1950s mid-July games.

As we conclude this evening's proceedings, with the wife very annoyed by a 3-0 Flyers deficit after the first period, I told her I put in the story about her giving me the finger. Wife, "I'll deny it... not." Guess I still got some work to do. Off to YouTube, hasta.

How Many Wins for Roy?

Ahola and... hello! A quick story for all of you leading into today's topic... the wife and I were out the other night, and the Phils game was on. Halladay was on the mound, and the Phils put up a 3 spot in the first inning. We looked at each other and said, "well, that game's over." And we weren't kidding. No one is gonna beat Halladay this year when he gets a 3 run cushion to start. If you could bet on something like that, you should. Hell, he's already out 4-0 and no one has really gotten too close to him yet. Even that most recent victory didn't seem that close, despite the score. I never got the sense he was losing that game. Anyways, doesn't that make you wonder how many games Roy will actually win this year?

I knew it would, so I set about answering it for you, along with a quick pick from our first OFFICIAL sponsor, www.zoowithroy.com! Yessir, we have an official sponsor, meaning we are 1/100th closer to being a legitimate sports entity. I happen to know the creater of that blog, which is going really well and has been noted in a few publications, including a field of 64 tournament of Phillies blogs. ZWR (our newest LB character - die hard Philly sports fan, creator of zoowithroy.com, and admitted man-crush on Roy Halladay) is also our second guest speaker, so props to him. Z, post those links to where you got props in the paper and online in the comments so you can hook the people up.

A quick peek at Roy's career stats... his career stats, when averaged into your typical 162 game year: 17-9 (66.5% win percentage), ERA in the 3.40 range. That's all with Toronto, and all in the AL East, the best division in baseball for quite some time now. Toronto, not exactly the haven of baseball success the last 10 years or so, for those who don't follow the sport so much. Nowadays, the average starter gets in 32-35 starts per year, assuming no injuries. So Roy here has been getting about 26 decisions in about 34 starts, which equals 77% of his starts. Stay with me, kids, I know I suck at math, but I got the calculator out, so I should be good. And yes, people, I'm well aware the calculator has not helped me at all in the past. I'm counting on Z, who is freaking smart, to make corrections for me in the inevitable follow up to this post.

77% isn't too shabby. If you could sum up Toronto's bullpens in one word, it would be "completepieceofcrap." Roy probably got to 77% by throwing so many complete games. Can't you just see him when the manager comes to take him out? I think he'd rather throw his arm off before giving the ball to the AL East equivalent of Major League. The Phils bullpen is nothing great, but it's better than anything Toronto has thrown out there. Plus, you get the obvious advantages of the NL, where you can pitch around the last two spots in the order. Advantage: Roy. The NL East is right up there in terms of competitive divisions, and the Marlins and Braves run some good lineups out there, but the Mets and Nats should be good for at least 5-6 wins for Roy alone.

I'm going for the high end prediction here, so I'm going to take liberties with the stats and assume historical season, which is definitely in the cards for Roy. Let's say he gets decisions in 87% of his starts, or 6 of every 7. That gets him 30 starts. I'm throwing a bonus one in for historical-standards sake, and getting him to 31 this year. Now, taking a look at his career win percentages again, his best came in 2006 when he won 76.2% of his games in a 16 win season. Not far behind, in 2003 he won 22 games with a 75.9% winning percentage. Just to give you some perspective on this, the Blue Jays never won more than 54% of their games when Roy was there, and won 53% of their games in 2003 and 2006, Roy's best years by percentage. Just how bad would the Jays have been without him? Wow.

So you gotta assume Roy is going to continue to have a better win percentage than his team on some level. If the Phillies win 95 games, they will win about 59% of their games. Let's just take a look at some possible win totals for Roy, based on what his win percentage would be in 31 starts:

76.2% (career best) - 24 wins
80% (about 33% better than his team; he was about 50% better with the Jays) - 25 wins
90% (about 50% better than his team) - 28 wins

No, I seriously don't think Roy is going to go 28-3. You gotta figure, that "percentage better than team" stat I made up is going to go down as your team gets better. But 33% might be possible. Keeping in mind, I'm looking at the high end of what I think is possible, i.e., an absolutely historical season... LB Prediction - Roy goes 26-5, or about 83.8% win percentage.

Likely? No. Improbable? Yeah. Impossible? Hells to the no. You figure that a couple of teams will get him (2-3 losses), the Phils bullpen will mess a few up (5 no decision), and throw in a couple of random occurrences, e.g., loses a pitchers dual to Tim Lincecum, Phils bats go cold (see Sunday, 4/18, and Cole Hamels for more on that), etc. Now, in his own words, the man, the myth, the legend... well, the man. "ZWR, senior editor of the world famous and facebreakingly awesome (LB: and feverishly handsome father of the year) I Want to Go to the Zoo with Roy Halladay (zoowithroy.com)" and his prediction for Roy's season:

"Hey- I got your text, but we were painting and having crap delivered all weekend and I totally spaced out. Sorry. Prediction: 23 wins. He's that good, and so is our offense."

To fill you in, I texted him about sponsoring this post, which is what he's referencing. I then emailed him my prediction, and this is what he said, after the game on Tuesday when Madson managed to blow that game in the 9th after Kendrick channelled his inner Roy:

"Love the optimism. and then you have to factor in the completely undefinable, like tonight's game. Aafter that soul-crushing defeat last night there's no way he allows this team to not win tonight. The man (Roy) is the closest thing to a robot fused with teen wolf and the kid from rookie of the year and Michael Corleone ever. Wait until you see what Yunel Escobar (Braves shortstop) says about him this morning (a few days ago) on ZWR.com"

See, that is why you should check out his blog. It's pretty damn funny. Parantheses mine, by the way, sorry, Z. Thanks again to ZWR for being our first official sponsor. Let me know what you think via comments or email, logicalbetting@hotmail.com if you don't know my personal one. Please keep forwarding it on to anyone who may be interested or has influence in the world. Thanks again for all your support.

MLB Preview

Baseball season is underway, finalmente. Opening Day seems to creep up on us each year, as it falls in the midst of the NCAA tournament, start of the NBA and NHL playoffs, NFL draft, and the Masters. Usually there is some buzz about baseball the first couple weeks, then it cools off til sometime after the NBA finals, then takes center stage for a summer of warm nights, cold beers, and the smell of hot dogs and peanuts blowing in the air. It truly has some romance about it. My favorite thing about baseball is that at any point, you can see something you’ve never seen before. It’s the anticipation, the strategy, the setting up the hitter for the next pitch. It’s a game that’s easy to watch, easy to follow, and maybe the most difficult to understand strategy-wise. I also think it’s home to the most difficult feat in sports: hitting a baseball.

The biggest downfall of our beloved game is the HUGE disparity between the good and bad teams, and the extremely long odds that a bad team can turn it around and be competitive. Most of the small market teams only have a chance to be “okay,” as nearly all of them have big spenders in their division that are going to keep them down. This is one of the reasons I hate the Y*****s… I know they aren’t the only ones spending like mad, but they are definitely the ones that started it. I don’t blame them, though, they’re only playing by the rules. Anyways, this disparity makes predicting the MLB playoff teams relatively easy compared to the rest of the sports, but sucks when you can look at this in April and know with pretty good certainty who most of the playoff teams are. That’s why I’m giving you division breakdowns with predicted order of finishes, and a crack at some of the major awards. You’re welcome! We are unofficially sponsored b y One-A-Day Vitamins – One-A-Day, a legal supplement to help your health.

Before I get started, some disclaimers: I am a die hard Tigers fan, and have adopted the Phillies as my NL team, as I now live in the area. But let me be clear… nothing in the world would make me root for the Phils over my Tigers. I have a semi-affinity for the Red Sox, having lived in Boston for a couple years, and still follow the team a little bit with the help of J.B., who, being born and raised in South Philly, is naturally a Red Sox fan. Even if this is your first reading of Logical Betting, you can tell I hate the Y*****s more than any other team in sports, and have a general distaste for the White Sox and Twins (Tigers killers), and the Mets. Otherwise, I pretty much just love the game and will watch any random game on ESPN. That being said, let’s get going.

AL Central

Gotta start with my boys, of course. The Tigers have had to cut some payroll, due to the sagging economy and Dontrelle Willis. I like the guys they brought in via the Granderson/E. Jackson trade, and thought the Damon signing was a nice stop gap. Their entire season depends on whether Bonderman and Zumaya are healed and whether these young guys pan out. They literally could win anywhere between 70-90 games, which is a big spread. Which is scary for us die hard Tigers fans. No one really made any leaps and bounds in this division, and to be honest, no one is nearly good enough to win it all. See what I mean? I am going to follow the Tigers all year, loving them, agonizing with defeat, cursing Dontrelle Willis (though he had a good Spring… is it possible… nahhhh), and I know that even if they win the division (which they won’t), they aren’t getting out of the first round. Sucks, but true. Mojo is going to ream me for my lack of faith. The Dog would, too, but he’s just happy going to the game, drinking a couple beers, and going home.

The favorites: The Twins. Loved the JJ Hardy signing. Good young pitching. Scary injury to Joe Nathan, though. They weren’t going to win it all anyways, but that pretty much seals it.
Potential sleeper: The Royals. They have some good young bats, Zach Greinke, solid closer, and they play in an average division. Hell, they pretty much single-handedly aided the Tigers to their collapse last year. A-holes.
Predicted Finish: 1. Twins, 2. Tigers, 3. Royals, 4. White Sox, 5. Indians. Seriously, Mrs. J.B., the Indians SUCK this year. They are at least two years away. Decent lineup, but their team ERA might be 100 this year, and so might their loss total for that matter. Just saying…

AL East

The big dogs live here. See, this is where baseball’s economic setup really sucks. The Rays and Orioles have done a good job on a small budget, with the Rays even parlaying that into a World Series appearance two years ago. There was actually an article on ESPN that advocated for a realignment based on either economics or more regional changes that would even out some of these economic disadvantages. I don’t have the link handy, but would be worth a Google. Anyways, the Rays would be the favorites in 3 of the other 5 divisions, giving them the AL West, though not the NL East. The Orioles have done a pretty darn good job of assembling good, young talent throughout their lineup, though probably couldn’t pitch their way out of the College World Series. But these guys have no chance in this division. If the Rays had fans, this would be an outrage. Baltimore fans are just too happy living in such an underrated town, then partying outside at Pickles after games, to make a big stink.

So that leaves us with the Y*****s/Sox argument (I’m calling them the Ys from now on so I can stop counting *s). The Sox are gonna struggle to score runs at times, unless David Ortiz channels his inner 2004, and the Ys don’t have much of a bullpen, though that won’t matter until the playoffs. This division probably comes down to whoever has the better record against each other and the Rays.

The favorites: The Ys. Hard to go against the reigning… ummm… excuse me… BLAGH!!! BLAGH!!! Sorry, had to go vomit my intestines out. Hard to go against the reigning… *dry heaving*... champions. I’ll never get used to this.
Potential sleeper: Well, I’d like to say the Rays, but they have no chance to steal the division. They’ll get the token nod here.
Predicted Finish: 1. Yankees, 2. Red Sox, 3. Rays, 4. Orioles, 5. Blue Jays

AL West

The Angels have traditionally dominated this division, but I think this is the year they go down. Too many defections, and getting too old. Jeremy agreed with my theories on this, but seemed to favor the Angels anyways. Even though the teams in this division aren’t that great, I don’t see that big a disparity between them. And again, none of these teams can win the AL, which is sad, but true. I love what the Mariners did this offseason, and they are an underrated hitting squad. Jose Lopez is due for a bounce back year, and they can pitch with anyone. Since I know none of you care about these teams and probably can’t name more than 2 players on any of them, I’ll just predict and move on.

The favorites: The Angels. Not sure how many times they’ve won in a row, but they are the token favorites. And I’m hoping they lose cause the Rally Monkey is getting pretty old.
Potential sleeper: I’m gonna say the Rangers, only cause I think the team I’m picking to win has been given some props in the press for their improvements this year. If the Rangers can find a way to hold teams under 7 runs per game, they have a shot. Unfortunately, that’s quite the challenge for them.
Predicted Finish: 1. Mariners, 2. Angels, 3. Rangers, 4. A’s. Don’t sleep on the A’s, though, they have some really good arms on that team.

NL East

Rest easy, Phils fans, no one in this division can touch you, assuming no catastrophic injuries and that Ibanez doesn’t dive too far from last year’s numbers. People love the Braves, and I do, too, but not against the Phils. So let’s talk that Cliff Lee thing real quick. First off, you all have NO IDEA how much you will love Roy Halladay. Trust me on this. The Phillies official reason for dealing Lee was the need for prospects. I get that in theory, and it’s a good way to run a baseball team. The problem I have with that in this case is 1. the prospects they got back aren’t that great, and 2. they went and signed Joe Blanton for 3 years/24 million shortly afterwards.

Ummm… okay… for me, you gotta win when you can, and Lee does that for you. Maybe you don’t get the prospects, but with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels as your front three, you are guaranteed back in the World Series. They are definitely the favorites in the NL, but you figure they are gonna get either the Ys again or the Red Sox. Now, they’re going out there with Halladay/Hamels/Blanton vs. either Sabathia/Burnett/Vasquez or Beckett/Lester/Lackey. And their bullpen is suspect, though has great upside. Of course, I’m splitting hairs here, but isn’t the goal to win it all? To me, you take another run at it with the core group they have, cause eventually they won’t be able to afford all of them. Anyways, that said, the Phils are a great team, and I’ll be pretty surprised if they don’t get back to the World Series.

The favorites: Didn’t you read the last two paragraphs?
Potential sleeper: The Marlins. They have a good front two starters (Johnson and Nolasco), at least one other good pitching prospect (Andrew Miller), so-so bullpen, and a good lineup. Their biggest problem is that the Phillies have absolutely owned them the last few years, especially in Florida. No one else in this division did anything of note, though the Nationals could be a little better this year if they find a single starter in that mess other than Strausberg.
Predicted Finish: 1. Phillies, 2 (tie). Marlins, 2 (tie). Braves, 4. Nationals, 5. Mets

NL Central

This might be even easier to call than the NL East. My guess is Vegas has the Cardinals at like 1 to 5 to win the division because no one in their right mind is betting against them to win the division. I think they have the best shot at the Phils, personally… good front two starters, good lineup, solid bullpen, good manager, and the best hitter in baseball in Pujols. I would talk more about them, but most of you probably can’t name those two starters I mentioned, and could care less about this division or the next one, so I’ll just move on again.

The favorites: The Cardinals. If the Phils don’t make the World Series from the NL, the Cards will.
Potential sleeper: Wait, picking name out of hat… actually, let’s legitimately say the Reds. They have some good young arms, and maybe Homer Bailey will actually reach his potential this year. By the way, have any of you seen that Cuban kid Chapman pitch for them yet? He is crazy! If he can find the plate, he’s going to be scary good. Their lineup is pretty good, too, so let’s take them since everyone else in this division stinks.
Predicted Finish: 1. Cardinals, 2. Reds, 3. Brewers, 4. Astros, 5. Cubs (yikes), 6. Pirates (sorry, Fah, your investment isn’t looking too good this year, but they do have some decent young bats).

NL West

I was tempted just to list the picks here, since you guys likely know nada about this division, which is okay because no one is good enough to win the NL. We’ll just mention the Dodgers who are about one year away from being a really, really good team. They could actually challenge the Cards in the Divisional Round if their young starters mature a year quick, but I think the bottom of their lineup will eventually do them in. If the Giants could score at all, they would win the division. Even some of those lame prospects the Phils got for Lee might crack their lineup. Everyone in the media seems to love the Rockies, I guess cause of their lineup, which is pretty darn good. Their starters have gotten pretty good, too, but their bullpen is unimpressive and their starters aren’t enough to keep up in this division.

The favorites: The Dodgers, almost by default.
Potential sleeper: The Giants. If they get the Wild Card, which they might, good luck beating Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez in a five game series. They would win the series 3-1 with scores like 2-1, 1-0, and 3-2 in 11 innings, then lose that one game like 10-2. The Phils are praying these guys don’t get the Wild Card, especially if Zito pitches like he did at the end of next year. If he does, these guys are a lock for the Wild Card, and maybe for this division. Pretty bad when Barry Zito, who has like a 116 million dollar contract, is now the key for a team going from a sleeper to a contender.
Predicted Finish: 1. Dodgers, 2. Giants, 3. Rockies, 4. Diamondbacks, 5. Padres (that is one BAD team, maybe even worse than the Indians or Mets)

Playoff Predictions

What the hell, right? Let’s get ‘em on record:

AL – Red Sox over Twins, Ys over Mariners; Red Sox over Ys (completely out of principle, no way in hell do I pick the Ys, even though I think they’re the better team)

NL – Phillies over Giants (5 game series with have of Philly standing ready to jump off the Ben Franklin Bridge during Game 5), Cardinals over Dodgers; Phillies over Cardinals.

World Series – In Game 3 and with a 2-0 lead in the series, the Phils go to Boston looking to go up 3-0 sending Cole Hamels, former World Series MVP, to the mound vs. John Lackey… wait, that’s right, you traded Cliff Lee for a bunch of AA prospects. Oops. Rewind… in Game 3 of a 1-1 series, the Phils send Joe Blanton to the mound against playoff tested veteran John Lackey. That collective “oh, s**t” you just heard was the sound of all the Phillies fans who read this realizing that could happen. That collective-sounding “f*** Boston” was my wife yelling at me after reading this. Red Sox over Phillies.

And, just for kicks, some postseason awards: AL MVP – Alex Rodriguez (read my lips: MONSTER year), NL MVP – Albert Pujols (seriously, go see this guy play), AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez (the kid is due), NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay (scary what he could do against NL teams).

Teams better than you think: Rangers, Royals, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Marlins, Reds

Teams worse than you think: White Sox, Rays, Cubs, Mets, Indians. Actually, I don’t think the Indians could be worse than I think, but I just want to make Mrs. J.B. mad again.

As Homer Simpson once sang, “Take me out to the ball game, take me out to the ball!” Post your predictions in the comments section and we’ll see who gets it right this year. Please keep forwarding this on to anyone who might be interested, I really appreciate all of you doing that. Comments and suggestions to the comments section, my personal email, or logicalbetting@hotmail.com. Play ball!!!