Super Bowl - The Pick

Before we get into my reasoning for picking the likely loser in the Super Bowl, let’s acknowledge what a kick a** season this has been in the NFL. If you were a guinea pig for when I started this blog, or actually took the time to read down to my first posts (if you did and can prove it, I will buy you a drink next time I see you cause, to be honest, they’re lacking creativity, but did get me the feedback to make this much more interesting), then you know how I feel about people who gripe about parity in sports, most notably the NFL. I completely disagree on two fronts. One, I think parity keeps fans in towns where the team is bad more interested, plus, allows for more competitive football in so-called “average” teams. Two, I think the parity argument is crap. Is it me, or have the Colts, Patriots, Chargers, and Eagles all been pretty damn competitive for awhile now? How many “elite” teams is a league supposed to have? In any sport, there are going to be the elites and the Lions, if you will. Those team rotate regularly, with one or two in each category that tend to last for awhile for some reason, e.g, great management/ownership, all-World QB, Hall of Fame coach, or just the opposite, i.e., worst ownership in sports history in the Lions. Parity is a cause of greater depth at the college levels, better training regimens, evolving offenses/defenses/game planning, etc. Let it go, people, enjoy the sport and stop griping.

Sorry, digression there, you know how I get. Anyways, parity is also what gives us a memorable season like we had this year. Despite the high number of truly bad teams, the rest of the league was highly unpredictable and exciting. Who saw the Broncos and Bengals coming? Anyone think the Saints would put up numbers like they did this year? All the playoff teams in the NFC had 10+ wins, and the two lowest seeds in the AFC both won road games in the first round, with one of them, the Jets, making it to the AFC title game. If you gripers (my new name for people who bitch about stuff for the sake of bitching) want to call that parity, go ahead. I call that f***ing awesome football. And the future is bright, with a ton of rookies and second year guys on both sides of the ball making significant contributions (Percy Harvin, Shonne Greene, Brian Cushing, among others), lots of teams poised to make “the leap” (49ers, Texans, Jets again), and even some hope on notoriously bad teams (Cleveland, Washington). As long as the NFL does not completely blow this whole thing and have a lock out in 2011, we will be entering an era of high competition and great football with no end in sight. Maybe I should get that investment group together, get Al Davis psychiatrically committed, and get to work on moving the Raiders to L.A.

Allow me to be humbled for a moment briefly, as I am a known Favre-hater ever since he went wishy-washy on Green Bay, then blamed it on the GM. He was pretty damn awesome against the Saints, despite the three turnovers. He had a hell of a year, and I don’t think anyone doubted he still had it in him. I just hate how he went about it. I think he deserves to come back if he wants, but really should try to be a little quicker this time around since the Vikings will likely want to keep pushing towards a Super Bowl and will be in trade talks for Donovan McNabb about 5 seconds after Favre confirms he’s not coming back. That excites both Eagles and Vikings fans alike. Anyways, I apologize to Favre for wanting him to separate his shoulder on every play, but stand by my belief that he could not have handled that situation in Green Bay any worse unless he relapsed on the Vicotin and took a dump in the middle of Lambeau Field.

On to the big game, the second best sporting event during the year only to the NCAA tournament. I know I’m in the minority there, but I’m sticking with it and will discuss later when the tourney gets upon us. In brief, I got both games right in the conference championships, though missed on the spread in the NFC. The spread for the Super Bowl opened at Colts -5.5 or 6, depending where you looked, and as about five days before the game, has been bet down to 5. It will probably stay there, but could get bet down another half point before the game starts, since the Saints are America’s darlings right now. So if you like the Saints, grab them now, and if you like the Colts, wait til Saturday. If you like to win bets, pick against me after reading this. Today’s post will be unofficially brought to you by Ameritrade because I am still mad at E Trade for retiring the old E Trade baby, though I’ll admit that first commercial with the new baby making fun of the guy playing the lottery is pretty good. But I don’t get why they retired the original baby, but kept all the friends on board. What the hell is that all about? Anyways, if they pull off a good Super Bowl commercial, I’ll be back on board. But until then, it’s Ameritrade – Ameritrade, the first online trading site I thought of that wasn’t E Trade. Which actually took me a minute, so that tells you how effective those E Trade commercials are. Without further ado…

Colts offense v. Saints defense – The Saints have that classic “bend, don’t break” style of defense, infusing that with an uncanny ability to create turnovers. If you’re a Saints fan, you just keep hoping the other team turns it over as they keep moving down the field. Very nerve racking, yet exciting way to cheer on your team that has the 25th ranked defense overall. Yikes. The Saints absolutely, unequivocally, without a doubt, for certain, in no lesser terms HAVE to get pressure on Peyton Manning. They must also in no lesser terms, for certain, without a doubt, unequivocally, absolutely MUST get at least two, preferably three turnovers in order to win this game. If they don’t, you can kiss the dream season goodbye. The problem is that Peyton almost never gets sacked, never throws picks, is unreal against the blitz, and his skill guys almost never fumble. In other words, they’re going to have to trick the master. Good luck with that. Notice I’m saying nothing about the Colts offense because putting 30 points on the best defense in the league (really could have been more if they had converted in the red zone in the first half) with Peyton putting up 377 and three scores pretty much speaks for itself. You want to bash the Colts for a lack of a running game, go ahead. But last time I checked, every time these guys came to play, they had no trouble moving the ball, with the last two of those against the Ravens and Jets defenses. Most teams need a running game. These guys have Peyton. Edge: Colts.

Before we move on, is anyone else amazed by watching Peyton play? I watched both games last week, and you had Peyton, Favre, and Brees all on display. Favre and Brees looked like junior varsity compared to Peyton. He is just on another level, much like every time you watch LeBron play a basketball game. If he gets this Super Bowl, I think he eventually goes down as the best of all time, though it would be a close call. If he gets two more Super Bowls, game, set, match.

Saints offense v. Colts defense – Almost the same concept on the other side of the ball. Colts need to get pressure on Brees, and unlike the Colts, the Saints will make the occasional mistake. We’ll probably know in the first couple possessions how bad Freeney’s ankle is and/or how effective that cortisone shot was. The flip side is the Saints have even more weapons than the Colts, and have an actual running game, which the Colts tend to struggle with. It will be interesting to see how much the Saints add in some between-the-tackles running to try and slow Freeney and Mathis and overpower some of those smaller lineman and linebackers they have. Watch for Pierre Thomas to get a little more action, as well as more Reggie Bush between the tackles, which could actually put the Saints at risk for more fumbles. All that said, the Saints have the most dangerous offense since the Rams rolled out the Greatest Show on Turf. Man, are they fun to watch. Lance Moore had 70+ catches last year, and he’s their fourth receiver. That is nuts. Edge: Saints.

Special Teams – Garrett Heartley hit a field goal to send his team to their first Super Bowl ever, so I guess that qualifies him as pretty damn clutch. Matt Stover is a solid kicker on the other side. Reggie Bush is the biggest threat on either side in the return game, and Roby is a solid KR for the Saints, too. If either team can gain an edge in the punt game and/or break a special teams play, then it could be the difference in what should be a close game. Yes, I realize that pretty much holds true for every game, but probably more so here. Anyways, this is getting boring to talk about it, so I’m done with this section. Edge: Even.

Coaching – Sean Payton has done a ridiculously good job in New Orleans. He took over after Katrina and has done nothing but win since. Greg Williams is a former head coach and solid, if not great defensive coordinator. On the flip side, Jim Caldwell has quietly kept stability on a great team after Dungy left. They also benefit from a great offensive coordinator in Tom Moore. Based on the coaches alone, I would give a slight edge to the Saints. However, riddle me this… do you think Peyton Manning is pretty much an extra coach on the field? I do. Edge: Even.

Intangibles – Could there possibly be a better intangible than “everyone except the Colts fans and players families are pulling for you?” Almost, in my quickly growing man-crush of Peyton Manning, but not quite. The bigger question is whether the weight of the city and the world crushes or inspires the Saints players. I think they need to get out to a lead to get the confidence going. If the Saints fall behind, I think they have a problem. Not that they can’t score a ton of points real fast, but the Colts are so freaking professional and business-like that if they get ahead, they will play even more loose and start to squeeze the life out of the Saints.

All that said, has a team ever had more to play for than the Saints, and not only that, has a team ever looked so loose and ready to go than they do? You would think they were getting together with their boys for some Saturday afternoon two-hand touch the way they’re acting. I get the sense they feel no pressure whatsoever to win this game, even though they should. On the flip side, you know Peyton is thinking legacy with this one, cause if he gets it, the sky’s the limit for him. Not that he ever feels pressure, but you know, a normal person could in this situation. Edge: Saints.

The Pick – The Saints got 5 turnovers and still needed OT at home to beat the Vikings. Anyone here think Peyton is gonna turn the ball over 5 times? Me neither. I love the Saints, I love the story, I love the idea of New Orleans getting a Super Bowl in the face of the tragedy there. It all seems too perfect, doesn’t it? Right until you get to the part where the best quarterback in history walks in the same building then lights up that weak secondary for 350 yards and 4 scores. The big question is, will that be enough to outscore New Orleans, since it’s not like the Colts have that great a defense either, and were not what one would call “tested” by the Ravens or Jets. If you combined the Ravens and Jets offenses, they wouldn’t be as good as New Orleans’ juggernaut, not even close. I saw somewhere the over/under on this game is 57. Yeah, I’d take the over if it were 60.

This should be a classic game. I will be pulling for the Saints, but when it comes to a pick, I’m falling back on the KISS Principle. For me, it says the Colts haven’t lost a game where they tried to win, they have arguably the best QB of all time, and they have been the better, more consistent team. I think if both teams play their absolute best, then the Saints actually have the higher upside. The problem is, they also have the much lower downside. You know what you’re getting with the Colts. Not so true with the Saints. While my heart is pulling for New Orleans, my mind says Colts, and Vegas is begging you to bet the Saints. Vegas Line + KISS Principle = Colts 34, Saints 27. In other words, play the Saints on the money line and get ready for what has the potential to be the best Super Bowl yet. Side note: after reading the pick to the wife, she said, “Pick the Saints. You’re mean to the Saints.” She then admitted she is rooting for the Colts. I guess she’s trying to incite an argument, but I already said I want the Saints to win. Aren’t all of you glad the Eagles aren’t in this game? So am I. Sheesh.

Logical Betting is taking about 2 weeks off and coming back with a discussion about steroids in baseball. No live blog of the Super Bowl because the wife and I have plans. I actually practiced doing that during the NFC title game, and it wasn’t as hard as I thought it would be, so maybe we’ll explore that for a future post. Keep the suggestions and comments coming. Already have another post in the works that was suggested by a loyal reader, so trust me, I listen, and trust me again, that one is gonna be good bar room talk. Please keep forwarding us on to anyone who might want to read. If you don’t know me, you can reach me at logicalbetting@hotmail.com to give feedback and ideas. Thanks again for all your support.