NCAA Tourney Preview

I am starting this post on Saturday, the day before Selection Sunday, and I am freaking giddy right now. The tournament is everything sports should be about… players playing their hearts out, win or go home, huge Cinderella potential, potential for legendary games at every turn, more ways to gamble on the games than you could ever dream. Yep, it’s Logical Betting’s Christmas. The best part is that the tournament upholds the academic integrity of the “student athlete” by ensuring the players don’t miss classroom time, similarly to how college football does… errrrr, right. Sorry, couldn’t resist a dig at NCAA football there. Did anyone see there is going to be a Pinstripe Bowl held at Yankee Stadium in December? Sure we couldn’t have college playoff games hosted in the North, NCAA, can’t take those kids out of class. I mean, we all know it’s about the money, just say it. Like when A-Rod went to Texas it was about “winning” and not “250 million dollars.” Just fess to it, for God’s sake.

Ugh, I feel like the Grinch now. By the way, the Pinstripe Bowl is making an early case for next year’s Top 5 Most Ridiculous Bowl Games post. Anyways, back to the tourney. The tourney kicks off what is pretty much sports’ best run of the year… tourney, into the Masters, into the NFL draft, MLB opening day, all culminating with the NBA finals and Stanley Cup finals. Good stuff. I’m a little nervous about all this talk about expanding the field cause this really is the most perfect event in all of sports. Hopefully some of you took my advice and got the Directv package. Alas, I am a Fios man now, but still took Friday off to hopefully not get screwed by the CBS local broadcasting rules. At the very least, we’re going out Saturday night to celebrate the wife’s birthday, and will have access to all the games then. For now, I’ll give you my take on the tourney, bracket by bracket, with my picks included. I encourage you to jot your Final Four into the comments for comparison’s sake. LB’s tourney bracket is sponsored by Directv, only cause I love that tournament package they have.

Before we get started, let me just say that right when I saw this, I thought “this is a weird bracket.” I think the ACC got WAY overvalued, and that Duke got a f-ing gift handed to them, which should be no surprise to anyone. The tourney faves, Kansas and Kentucky, got the two toughest 2 seeds in Ohio St. and West Virginia. I don’t like when they put some of the good mid-majors against each other, ala Richmond v. St. Mary’s. And how Villanova got a 2 is way beyond me. And if ever a 16 was going to beat a 1, this is it. Anyways, that all said, let’s break down the brackets. For the record, unlike the NFL, I am typically pretty good with picking the tournament, so feel free to use me as a guide as I just jinxed myself for my pool this year.

St. Louis/Midwest Region

Not only did Kansas get maybe the toughest 2 seed in Ohio St., they also got Georgetown, Michigan State, and Tennessee all lurking around, too. Yikes… that said, Kansas is still the #1 overall seed and probably the most talented team in the country. But seriously, what a murder’s row they got. If they can get out of this, look the hell out.

Favorites: Kansas, Georgetown, Ohio St.

Potential sleepers: If any sleepers get far in this bracket, I’ll be shocked. Even Tennessee at a 6 seed isn’t much of a sleeper. But some good high seeds to kick around your bracket are San Diego St. and Georgia Tech. New Mexico St. could pull it off over Sparty, but something tells me Izzo gets them in line for at least one round. Northern Iowa would technically be an upset, but that is a toss up 8/9 game.

The Picks: Kansas over Georgetown; San Diego St. and Georgia Tech both to win in the first round. I have Sparty getting to the Sweet 16, too. Otherwise, really looking forward to a potential Ohio St./Georgetown matchup. Evan Turner is just sick. Of course, it helps when with 2.2 seconds left and your season on the line, you don’t guard the guy throwing the ball inbounds from under his own basket, then let the best player in the country dribble free with absolutely no pressure, then let him pretty much shoot clean with a really deep NBA three to end your season. Thank you, University of Michigan. I swear Rich Rod was talking to Boelin on that one.

West/Salt Lake City Region

Syracuse is fighting a knee injury to a key player, but was otherwise looking really good going into the tournament. That said, they got a pretty easy draw, too, save the K-State 2 seed. Back to that for a second… how do Kansas and Kentucky, the top 2 seeds in the tourney end up with the toughest draws? And spare me the stupid “we seed them, then just place them” bull crap argument. Seriously, how does that happen? God, I’m not going to be able to hold this back when we get to the South. Just a heads up to bleep that paragraph from the kiddies. Anyways… me digs that K-State team cause I think the Big 12 is better than anyone realizes. But are they good enough to beat the ‘Cuse? Hmmm… this is why the tournament is so freaking awesome. If this were football, we may never know. But here, in Christmas-land, we get to find out. Why, oh why did I get rid of Directv???

Favorites: Syracuse, K-State. And seriously, no one else has even a remote chance to get out of this bracket. Pitt is a 3 seed? That means they’re a top 12 team according to the committee. That is pure stupidity. Michigan State would be a tougher second round game for K-State.

Potential sleepers: I like Murray State and Minnesota in the first round for sure. UTEP mysteriously got a 12 seed, which makes me think they weren’t as good as their ranking, but I could see them getting to the Sweet 16. Look out for BYU to mess up that K-State v. Syracuse Elite 8 game. If they get by K-State, I think they’ll get to the Elite 8.

The picks: Syracuse over Kansas State; UTEP, Murray State, Florida State, and Minnesota all to win in the first round. I am thinking Minnesota has a good shot to get to the Sweet 16, but not gonna have the guts to take them. UTEP gets by Murray State before getting smoked by Syracuse. And seriously, watch BYU. I was taking them to the Sweet 16 til Are You Serious? Bracket 2010 was unveiled by the committee. From now on, I’m calling it the AYS Bracket. But again, this is why the tournament is the best thing in sports. The committee could not have made this more illogical and unfair to the top 2 seeds, and it’s still the coolest thing going. Basically, it’s stupid proof, and that’s saying a lot for the world today. Alright, enough, moving on.

East/Syracuse Region

Kentucky, with its great season, was hereby rewarded with the top seed closest to home. That would be great, except the team that should have gotten the other 1 seed, West Virginia, happens to be the 2 in their bracket, which also happens to be closest to their home, in a dome that they play in once a year. Sweet. I bet Kentucky wishes they could flop with Duke. Hell, EVERYONE wishes they had Duke’s spot (we’re getting real close to my rant about this, though it does have legitimate arguments in it, too). Keep in mind that Texas was #1 earlier this year, and though not nearly the same team, do you really want to see them when they have absolutely nothing to lose and a shot at knocking out a 1 seed? Yeah, me either.

Not sure what to make of New Mexico, but I’m pretty sure the stage will overwhelm them. Watch out for whoever gets out of the Cornell/Temple/Wisconsin bracket. Any one of those teams could give Kentucky a battle. That is also another example of the head scratching that is this bracket. Temple had a great year, and got a seed only one higher than the team that finished way behind them in their own conference, Xavier, who didn’t even get to their own conference title game, and happened to get a seed higher than a 26-7 Richmond team that did get to the conference game. That makes sense, how, exactly? Right. AYS Bracket. Nowwwww it makes sense. Moving on…

The favorites: Kentucky and West Virginia. West Virginia will walk to the Elite 8, and if Kentucky gets upset, they’re in the Final Four. I had them in until the brackets got revealed. Which if this and a couple other likely matchups happen, the AYS Bracket is gonna lead to some classic Elite 8 games, other than whatever underachieving bad team makes it to face Duke, another bad team. Keep your fingers crossed.

Potential sleepers: Temple and Cornell. Marquette is pretty underrated, but even if they beat New Mexico, they got stuck with 1A seed West Virginia. Good night, and sweet dreams.

The picks: Kentucky over West Virginia. Missouri wins in the first round, Temple and Marquette to the Sweet 16. Everyone seems to love Cornell, but Temple is too talented and the Atlantic 10 was somewhat underrated this year.

South/Houston Region

I’m not gonna lie, I am a pure bred Duke hater. C-BOST (that’s the Committee for Bleeping Out Sports Things, for those who forgot), would have bleeped them out a long time ago, but I have way too much respect for Coach K, and I veto their nomination every month at our committee meetings. Even if you’re a Duke fan or graduate, you HAVE to admit they got the biggest joke of an obvious gift in the history of the tournament. I was emailing back and forth with a friend, and we agreed that any of the other 1 seeds would rather be a 4 or 5 seed in the South than the 1 seed in their own bracket, with the possible exception of Syracuse, though personally I’d much rather play Duke than Kansas State in the Elite 8. Villanova as a 2??? Baylor??? Purdue minus Hummell??? Are you kidding me? I think Notre Dame as a 6 is probably the third best team in the bracket right now. Unbelievable. Oh, you may be wondering why Notre Dame is not bleeped out here, as C-BOST has approved them as being bleeped out. Key distinction: N**** D*** football, not Notre Dame basketball, is bleeped out. They don’t get the same media slurps that football does, and doesn’t have “fans” that didn’t go the school, didn’t grow up in South Bend, and don’t know anyone who went there. Okay, back to your regularly scheduled Duke Hatorade, already in progress…

I’m sorry, but how can you not be thinking conspiracy on this? And even if you don’t believe that, Duke is not as good as Ohio St. or West Virginia. I’m sorry, they’re not. Ohio St. lost three games without Turner, which makes their record just as good as Duke. West Virginia is hot as hell, and just won the Big East tournament, which is easily the toughest conference out there. The ACC had two ranked teams at the end of the year, Duke and Maryland, pretty much by default. Maryland is okay, but the ACC was way down. Duke has three and a half players (Zubek is big, but only really half good), and nada more, so you can’t even make that “talented team” argument. They are a product of their schedule and have a mediocre road record to boot. Give…me…a…break. AYS, AYS, AYS. The only person who thinks this is fair is Dick Vitale, and even he has to be shaking his head. Ugh, the committee ruined a whole bracket, and it’s STILL cool. I hate them. Let’s go Arkansas Pine-Bluff!

The favorites: Duke. And no one else. I’m not kidding. Anyone want to bet $10? I’ll take Duke, and you get the rest of the bracket.

Potential sleepers: I like Notre Dame for two rounds, Utah St., Siena, and Louisville could all win as high seeds. St. Mary’s was a sleeper fave, but they drew Richmond in yet another AYS moment. Couldn’t split them and let them play major conference schools? Of course not, that wouldn’t help their recruiting or anything. Stupid committee.

The picks: Duke over Villanova, kind of by default. I almost took Richmond to beat Villanova, seriously thought about it a long time, especially cause we get upset points in the pool I’m in. I like Notre Dame to the Sweet 16, and Utah State in the first round, if only cause I have them in a points spread pool with Fah T. I liked Siena til they got stuck with a Purdue team that is still pretty good, despite not having Hummell. Otherwise, I see boring games and chalk. Hopefully they’ll be close, though.

A couple years ago, I correctly picked the first time all four 1 seeds made it to the Final Four (yes, I’m bowing and bragging to the wife again), and for whatever reason that’s what I’m seeing again. Before the bracket was revealed, I liked Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio State, and West Virginia. Then the committee showed up and forgot that Duke really isn’t the third best team in the country. Did I say that out loud? Oops. I like Kansas as having just too much talent and experience for a damn good Syracuse team, and Kentucky to crush Duke and proving how bad they really are.

That leaves the veteran heavy Kansas team, looking for two in three years, versus a young, dynamic Kentucky team and their cheater coach. Should be a classic matchup, really fun one to watch. I happen to have the week off work, so looking forward to a late Monday night eating wings and drinking a few cold ones. In the end, veteran savvy pays off, and Kentucky’s one-hit wonder team heads for the NBA without rings on their fingers. Ironically, I’m actually picking Kentucky in my pool because I don’t like to take the team that I think most of the pool will take. The wife is taking Kansas to help hedge our bets. So in my pool, I got Kentucky. In Vegas and in Logical Betting world, I’m going with the team that survives the bracket of death and cuts down the nets for the second time in three years.

Kansas 80, Kentucky 77.

Comments here on the blog, especially encourage you to post your picks for comparison's sake. As always, comments and suggestions can be sent to my personal email or logicalbetting@hotmail.com. Please keep forwarding on the blog, I would love to continue getting more people involved and having more feedback from readers I don’t know. Thank you again for the support. Hoping for the ladies blog in a week and a half, if I can get through it all, but it’s on the way, ladies, I promise. The MLB preview is on its way, as well as plans for a couple more podcasts, another suggestion post, and some chit chat about whether N**** D*** might actually join the Big Ten. Until then, Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good tournament.