Logical Betting, the Super Bowl Pick

Taking a break from saving the NHL to bring you a Super Bowl breakdown. We have confirmed JB as our NHL podcast guest, and he assures us that he will filter out his… well… “thoughts” about the commissioner of the NHL so you guys can actually hear intelligent hockey talk. I’m debating whether to just re-post last year’s article, along with the New Year’s stuff from 2010, since the NHL hasn’t done much since, but we’ll deal with that later. On to the Logical Betting Super Bowl breakdown, coming to you unofficially in fabulous, crystal clear, stunning, picture perfect HD by Tostitos. Tostitos – 2 bags for $5, you get a free jar of Tostitos salsa, and the wife and I had coupons for each of the bags of chips, this week at your other unofficial sponsor, Target.



What’s that? You want another pop quiz? Sure! From 1993-1996, the other North American Football League, the CFL, birthplace of the great Jeff Garcia, actually expanded into the U.S. Over the course of the four seasons, seven different American cities had CFL teams until the experiment ended in 1996 due to lack of attendance (shocking, I know). Can you name 4 of the 7 teams? All seven without a Google gets you free insider access to Logical Betting, currently enjoyed by Major Mojo! This is tough, so here’s some clues: One city currently has an NFL franchise, and three currently have NBA franchises.

So before we get to the game, let me throw out a couple more tidbits… Logical Betting rules explicitly state you don’t gamble for real in the playoffs, only for the funnest of funnest times. No locks is the *general* rule, which I say having called the Ravens in Round 1 a lock (earning me a Friendly Six Pack, from here and forever known as an FSP, christened by my cousin-in-law, who has kept my beer fridge looking good this fall with a few FSPs), and hinted strongly at the Steelers as a lock in the AFC Championship game. And let me tell you, I have a strong feeling about this game. However, to check myself, I have solicited a few of our LB Cast of Characters to make their picks as well… that would be JB, Fah T., Mojo, and the Elf, the latter three you’ve seen here making picks before. Take their judgment as you will, though I will admit, again, that Mojo correctly predicted the Lions would finish 4-0. He isn’t officially on the record saying they’ll be 13-3 next year, but it’s definitely on his mind. Onward, clichéd breakdown style. Duh.

Packers offense vs. Steelers defense – This is like Wrestlemania 3 when Gorilla Monsoon legendarily called Hulk Hogan going up against Andre the Giant as “the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.” In case you forgot, the irresistible force Hulk Hogan takes a beating for about an hour, comes out of nowhere, Hulks up, and finishes off the Giant with a body slam and leg drop. Metaphorically, the body slam is the Packers passing game and the leg drop is their running game. In other words, they don’t have a leg drop. Rut roh. To me, this is the key to the game. Can sure-to-be-drafted-at-least-three-rounds-too-high in next year’s fantasy drafts, James Starks provide a modicum of a running game, or do the Pack become one dimensional two… errrr, too quick? Dick LeBeau has two weeks to figure out Rodgers and the "Steelers are weak against the spread" theory, which is enough time, assuming he assumes his defense can stop the running game without much trouble. I assume this, too. However, when one assumeth, one maketh an ass of u and me. Where do I come up with this stuff? Edge – Even

Steelers offense vs. Packers defense – If you’re into the NFL, and if you’re reading this, I’m guessing you are, you should pick up Ron Jaworski’s The Games that Changed the Game. Great read, and basically gives you a historical look into how the NFL became what it is now, through seven key games in NFL history. Awesome stuff. I mention this because Dick LeBeau, the father of the zone blitz scheme, and Don Capers, now defensive coordinator of the Pack, were on the same staff in Cincinnati when LeBeau came up with it. When Caleb Haine threw that pick to BJ Raji two weeks ago (yes, I can talk about this now, thank you for your concern), before he even got to the end zone I just said to the wife, “zone blitz.” I also mention this because both teams ought to be able to plan for this much better than the typical opponent. So why do I think this favors the Steelers somewhat? Simple. They can run the ball. That, and Big Urkin (Big Ben’s LB name from now on… if you don’t get the reference, Google “Borat and Urkin) is really hard to tackle, even if you can get pressure on him. The extra second and the running game make the difference. Edge – Slight Steelers

Special Teams – Briefly, the Steelers probably have a slight edge in the return game, but if this is a close game, and it damn well better be since these two teams are so closely matched, I would MUCH rather have Mason Crosby kicking my game winning field goal than Shaun “I got cut earlier in the year” Suisham. Edge – Green Bay

Coaching – Mike Tomlin has won a Super Bowl. Dick LeBeau is a freaking defensive genius. Mike McCarthy has been at risk of losing his job before. Logical Betting, keep it simple, right? Edge - Steelers

Intangibles – Pittsburgh’s offensive line is beyond banged up, though Pouncey may alledgely play (read: take the Cortizone shot). Green Bay is getting healthy now, and is on fire. Does that extra week off cool them down, though? They’ve basically been playing for their lives since about Week 15. Do they burn out? Pittsburgh is playing in their 3rd Super Bowl in six years. That, my friends, definitely counts for something. Injuries and experience cancel themselves out. Edge – Even

Quiz Answer – Baltimore, San Antonio, Memphis, Sacramento, Shreveport, Birmingham, and Las Vegas all housed CFL teams before the Canadians got smart and stayed north of the border with that one. Shreveport cracks me up, and where in the hell is there a football stadium in Sacramento?

The Pick – When the Steelers held on against the Jets, the wife and I both agreed the Steelers should be about a 1-2 point favorite, even with the Packers being the top public team in Vegas, i.e., they get bet on the most, and Vegas will tilt the line about a point in their favor to offset that. The game opened at and is still Packers by 2.5. I don’t get it. The over/under opened at 45.5, and was bet down to 44.5, which I think is much closer. The Steelers did let down against the Jets, but they looked damn good against LB’s 3rd best team, the Ravens. The Packers easily could have lost to the Eagles, and let Caleb Haine come back on them in the NFC title game. Yeah, they crushed Atlanta, but as Simmons rightly pointed out on one of his podcasts, the Packers are like a dome team. Going to Atlanta was a joke for them. Playing in Dallas gives the Pack an edge in terms of the surface, but none of that seems to bother the Steelers. Big Urkin proves to us all that he has found a way to actually sell his soul, and we get to spend the next year debating whether three titles in six years is the new “dynasty.” Gag me, cause I hate the Steelers.

Steelers (+2.5) over Packers – Steelers 24, Packers 20. And let me say this, I’m not calling this a lock, but if a certain cousin-in-law of mine were to email me and say something like, “how about double or nothing FSP, I’ll take the Packers -2.5,” I would not turn him down.

And for some prop betting fun, I’ll take the under 44.5 (not really a prop, but whatever, parlay it with the Steelers and make it a prop), the coin toss to come up heads, Shaun Suisham to score the first points of the game, Rashard Mendenhall to score the first touchdown, Packers +135 to have the most penalty yards, and Christina Aguilera over 6 seconds holding “brave” at the end of the Star Spangled Banner. She’s gonna hog that spotlight for sure, yo. And now, in their own words, the guest pickers of LB. The wife was going to join in, too, but she’s still involved in my suicide pool, and thus, cannot reveal her leanings to the other three who remain and are on our mailing list. Here we go, in the order they were received:

Fah T. – “Packers because Ben is a rapist. JB is still my bitch.”

Mojo – “Packers. Steelers experience will give them the lead most of the game. Then a turning point will be reached by the Packers...I call a crazy run since everyone thinks it will come from Aaron Rodgers magic hands. That turning point puts the Packers up by 4 and that is how they win it...Steelers, if given a chance to score with anything under 2 minutes, will fail, they are so sure of themselves for having been there in the past that they blow it.

And then Big Ben rides his motorcycle helmetless to a red neck town outside Dallas (travel time not very far) and is seen entering a bathroom followed by Deion Sanders, who stands guard. Steelers lose, Big Ben wins...and LB comes out of his sports closet to declare he really has been an Aaron Rodgers fan all season. Crazy I know....but this is how it shall be!”

Alright, time out, I’m sorry, I gotta respond to this. First, it took me five minutes to correct “Major Ivy League’s” typos on that email. Second, the “LB Aaron Rodgers fan” comment comes from a conversation in which die-hard Lions fan Mojo claims the Lions still would have beaten the Pack if Rodgers hadn’t gotten hurt in the first half. He says, and I believe him, that he would have bet me 100 bucks straight up at half time if Rodgers hadn’t been hurt. I mean, Aaron Rodgers isn’t good or anything, he’s only in the Super Bowl. And yeah, I know he wrote that just to piss me off and bait me into this response, meaning I’ve now spent 15 sober minutes of my life correcting his grammar and writing this, but at least he’s laughing and I feel better. I hate when my boys bait me into this s**t, I always know they’re doing it and I know I’m falling for it, but I just can’t shut up. Oh, and he couldn’t be more right about the Big Urkin thing than if he picked the Lions to go 4-0 their last four games. Did I mention that for him yet? Okay, moving on.

JB – “Nice to see that your wife turned off the parental lock so you can use the computer Fah T.! Steelers. Packers are playing extremely well on both sides of the ball. However, Rodgers and the rest of the offense looked mortal during the second half of the NFC Championship game. Plus, Roethlisberger is a two time Super Bowl Champion, as is Troy Polamalu, Heath Miller, Hines Ward, and several other Steelers players. Hard to go against that much experience.” (LB Note – Fah and JB have met before, and enjoy ripping each over email. One day, they shall be reunited in a drunken argument at Downey’s on South Street that will inevitably end with all of us toasting pizza from Lorenzo’s at three in the morning while they both rip me for being gay.)

The Elf – “I was going to say Steelers because of the rumors coaches are leaving Green Bay for the Eagles but now that guy is supposedly out for a Steelers guy. I don't like the way coaches are out of a team that's still playing for a team that's been sitting around pulling pudds ala Michigan’s last two coaches.” (LB Note – ummm, could someone tell me what “pulling pudds” means. And since he’s a Penn State fan, I’m assuming Elf is ripping my beloved Wolverines there. Dammit. I think he’s going with the Steelers.)

So there you have it, the boys of LB like the Steelers +2.5 by a vote of 3-2. JB and I just got off the phone, and still can’t figure out that line. Everyone seems to love the Pack, even seen it bet up to 3 in a couple places. I don’t know, I think they’re overthinking it. Cue the cuz-in-law responding with an FSP bet. Enjoy the game, and, God willing, the return of the Bud Bowl.

Hasta.