Basketball Christmas is here!

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The NCAA tourney, aka, Basketball Christmas, start today. That is, unless you're delusional a sportscaster or employed by the NCAA, and you'll claim it started Tuesday with the getting you ready for a 92 team tournament play-in games. Rather than give you the typical breakdown, we'll take a quick peak LB style and give our picks. Plus, I'm sick as a dog, can't really think straight, and am going to just free flow this baby before I take next week off after drinking too much watching basketball to rest for awhile.

NFL Playoff Picks

It’s NFL playoff time, which is good times, but also when everyone busts out their “prognostication/Swami/crystal ball” whatever. I’m not down with that cliché, only every other one, so I’m going to do like always and just tell you like it is… this is my “what I think will happen in the playoffs” post. Catchy, right? I’m copyrighting that one. Unofficially brought to you today by Tostitos Hint of Lime chips. Yumms.

As you may (not) recall, I had the Saints to beat the Pack, the Ravens over Indy, and the Saints to repeat over the Ravens in the Super Bowl at the beginning of the year. Good for me cause they’re both in the playoffs, bad for me cause one of them doesn’t have a great shot at it. But, being as generous as I am, I will give you picks, picks vs. spread (Round 1), and what I need for LB to have ESP. Oh, you, chitty chitty bang bang, we love you.

Wild Card Round

New Orleans (-10.5) at Seattle – 7-9, eh? I’m not for re-seeding or eliminating the division winner playoff things. We hit a statistical outlier. Big deal. Oh wait, Brett Favre isn’t around to suck up 20 minutes of Sportscenter, better find something else to make look interesting that isn’t. By the way, you know even ESPN is sick of Favre when he gets sued by two more Jets masseuses for (allegedly) sending lewd texts. Brett, you are thankfully and finally out of our lives. For now. Anyways, don’t discount Seattle’s home field here, they actually are legitimately better at home, and have some talent on that team. However, do discount them having any chance to win this game. I’ll lay the points, but I could see a back door cover here. Which would be a dream scenario for Vegas, cause I don’t think the Seahawks would bet on themselves. It is nice that Pete Carroll can pay his players legally now, though, right? Pick – New Orleans across the board.

Jets (+3) at Indy – Not sure why this got the Saturday night slot, NBC got to pick it, I believe. How did they turn down Green Bay/Philly? Something strange brewing in the commish’s office, maybe? Regardslesses, this is the prime chance for the world to see what LB has known for awhile… Mark Sanchez blows. If he can’t throw on the Colts, he can’t throw on… the Colts. Seriously, if Sanchez played anywhere else, no one would even talk about this dude. Over-freaking-rated. I don’t feel like ranting today, so time to stop before I get angry. It’s a new year, right? In any case, despite Indy being 1-5 in the Wild Card Round under Manning, are you about to take Sanchez over him at home? Yeah, me neither. See, Logical Betting? Write that down, kids. Pick – Colts across the board.

Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs – I thought the Chiefs were feisty at home, then they no showed a game against a division rival with a chance to lock up the 3 seed and avoid the Pats in the 2nd round. Oops. How about that .500 record from Oakland, by the way? What if they had a quarterback? What’s that? Oh, they’re not playing in this game. Got it. If the Ravens ran the ball more than Andy Reid, they would have been 13-3. They should be, for God’s sake. The Chiefs are an enigma, meaning don’t bet this game, but if you must, bet against them (bad good team). The Ravens are good against the run, will shut down Bowe, and this should be simple for them. However, they have been anything but simple all year. Wouldn’t be shocked to see KC win this 19-17 or something like that. The public bet this line down a half point to start, and I’m guessing it gets bet back up. Logical Betting, kids, the Ravens are just plain better, and that tends to win out, especially when the better team also happens to be rocking much better playoff experiences. Pick – Ravens across the board.

Packers (+2.5) at Eagles – Sports talk around here is starting to reveal what some have known for a while now… the Eagles have not looked good since about Week 10, and this is a bad matchup for them. The Packers defense is physical, the corners can tackle, and the linebackers are quick, which is the recipe for slowing down the big plays. The Birds need to take shots over the top early and often (which they have done this year) and try and attack the Packers safeties. That, and they need to either run the ball, and/or use McCoy a lot in the screen/check down game, like they should have been doing against Chicago. Green Bay is going to score, the question is whether the Eagles will get enough big plays to win. This is not a 10 play/80 yard Eagles team. And that will be their downfall in a year that was both entertaining, beat expectations, and will somehow probably seem a little disappointing to Eagles fans. The mood around here seems to be setting up for disappointment. I actually liked the Birds to win this for awhile, then I heard the following stat: 76%. As in, the percentage of touchdowns opponents score in the red zone against the Eagles. Yikes. Pick – Green Bay across the board.

Divisional Round

New Orleans at Chicago – As a Bears fan, I am praying the Eagles win that game and I avoid this matchup. As it were, this is a disaster for us Bears fans. New Orleans has a great pass defense and is a turnover machine. Jay Cutler, too, is a turnover machine. Also, for us Bears fans, a nausea-inducing machine. Seriously, I get completely pumped up and freaked out every time he’s not handing the ball off. God, it’s going to be a long few years. At least we have a legit QB again, though. Anywho, I know none of you care about that, so… Forte needs 25 carries in this game for the Bears to have a shot. Otherwise, we’re one and done. Good year for us, though, watch them draft O-Line, WR, and D-line next year. Pick – New Orleans, in reality and LBESP world.

Green Bay at Atlanta – Matt Ryan is 18-2 at home. Word. Atlanta’s defense is underappreciated, and I think they can run on Green Bay. If this game is played anywhere else on the planet, it’s Green Bay all night long. By the way, current Super Bowl odds on Bodog have the Saints at 10-1, Eagles at 11-1, and Packers at 12-1. Don’t those sound look good value bets? Anyways… Pick – Atlanta. LBESP – Green Bay.

Ravens at Pittsburgh – I think Baltimore would have a better shot at the Pats. They won in Foxborough last year, and could easily do it again. The Stilers own them. If I were the Ravens, I would make my cheerleaders do a Victoria’s Secret runway show in Big Ben’s hotel hallway all night. Steelers win an ugly one. Is there any other thing in Pittsburgh in January? Not if you’re Big Ben, HAHAHAHA. Sorry, can’t help myself. How is this dude not under arrest again? Pick – Pittsburgh. LBESP – Ravens.

Colts at Pats – This rivalry is getting old. I also think I’m one of the few people who doesn’t see the Pats winning the Super Bowl. Gut feeling, I guess. This year, Tom Brady put up only the second season where a QB had a 6 to 1 or better TD/INT ration, going a freaking psycho 36 TD to 4 INT, one of which was on a Hail Mary. The other season? Tom Brady a few years ago. Scary. If they win the Super Bowl, he’s why. See, Mojo, QBs CAN win games, even championships. Name two other offensive players on New England. Exactly. And if you got Green-Ellis, it’s cause he was good in fantasy, not because you had heard of him before. Pick – New England. LBESP – Colts (if that happens, I really may have ESP).

Conference Championships

Saints at Falcons – Part 3 in our exciting triology! Actually, this would not be that exciting for most people, though watching that Monday nighter the other week (with my dad to watch the official clinch of our fantasy league title… ah, thank you!), this will be good football. Experience vs. one rocking home field advantage and a team loaded with talent. Who dat? Pick – Saints. LBESP – Saints over Packers in New Orleans, in a shoot out.

Steelers at Pats – This would be really simple… if the game is played 24 points/team or less, the Steelers pull the upset. If the Pats get to 24, then the Steelers be screwed. They would have to win the field position battle all day, and I mean that literally, all four quarters, and make Brady dink and dunk for 80 yards at a time. Mendenhall better eat his Wheaties. And his Cortisone-shoties. Pick – Patriots. LBESP – Ravens over Indy at home, ugly, something like 22-20.

Super Bowl

Saints vs. Pats – I actually do like the Saints to get here, and I just don’t see anyone not named Baltimore beating the Pats in the AFC. I’ll forgo the long breakdown for a later post, but for the fun of it… Saints 34, Patriots 31. LBESP – Saints over Ravens.

New Year’s Resolutions are ready and will be posted soon. Comments/suggestions on the old blog or to my email. Hasta, and thanks for reading.

Rules of Logical Betting, the betting service

Embarking on the one year anniversary of Logical Betting, and suddenly, it occurred to me… I’ve never actually posted the rules of Logical Betting. Henceforth! (my new fave word), I shall bring to thee, loyal readers, the rules of Logical Betting, which are unofficially brought to you by rulers and whoever makes them.

First, in case you forgot, a quick recap of how Logical Betting got its name: Jeremy and I were having a few libations amongst friends, and talk somehow got to making fun of those Vegas point spread services where they guarantee their “lock of the year/lock of the century” every week, and beg you to call and use their services. We were making fun of how people tend to overthink everything, and if you just think about things logically, you really don’t need to pay all that cash for someone to give you the answer that, most times, is pretty simple. We decided we should open our own non-statistically based service, and call it Logical Betting. So these are the rules of Logical Betting, if and when Jeremy and I decide to start it, based mostly on NFL spreads, but it works pretty much across all sport. The phone number, incidentally, will be 1-800-USE-BRAIN.

1. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose – You would think this goes without saying, but hey, remember one of the principle philosophies of my ramblings… follow the cash, and you have your answer. Gambling is supposed to be fun. This rule guides the rest of the rules, which are designed to minimize stress and maximize excitement. Set aside whatever you can lose, and bet that however you so choose. If we can find a way, LB the gambling service will be checking bank records for affordability. Obviously, I will not be in charge of that, since I do math at about a 3rd grade level. Maybe we’ll get Fah on that, he used to do banking, he can probably use a calculator.

2. Never bet on the first three weeks or last week of the NFL season – This actually runs in contradiction to a lot of gambling “experts.” We say don’t bet because you know nothing. They say bet because Vegas knows nothing. Guess what? Vegas ALWAYS knows something. Stay away, it’s just safer. As far as the last week, same thing goes. Too many teams benching starters, bad teams mailing it in, you know the story. Same thing, count your winnings from the year, sit back, and wait for the playoffs before you start gambling again. Or find an NBA game to bet on, if you must.

3. If the line seems way too obvious, bet the other way – For my cousin-in-law who walked into this trap and will be paying when I take him on his inaugural trip to the local microbrew heaven, here is how I knew the Lions were a lock over the Redskins the other week: Vegas gives three points to the home team off the bat. The then 1-5 Lions were a 2.5 point FAVORITE over the then 4-3 Redskins who were giving up under 20 points a game. So Vegas is telling you this game is a pick on a neutral field. Riddle me this… if the Lions and Redskins were playing a game tomorrow on a neutral field, knowing what you know after the game they played the other week, would you take the Lions straight up? I wouldn’t even think about it. I actually ignored this the same week by taking Seattle +2.5 over Oakland. Raiders and Seahawks a pick on a neutral field? Ummmm… so yeah, I should have stuck with an obvious Oakland line, but live and learn.

4. Don’t bet on bad “good teams”, bet against them – These would be teams that when you hear their name you think, “hey, they’re not bad,” when in reality, it is the total opposite. This works best when picking your NCAA tourney brackets, but applies to the NFL, too. This year’s absolute perfect example is the Cincinnati Bengals. As you may have noticed, last week I called Miami a lock over Cincy last week. Cincy is so far freaking overrated it’s unbelievable, and they’re 2-5!!! Just keep playing against them, you’re sure to make out. Minnesota falls in here, too, though I wouldn’t bet against them every week. But seriously, a 41 year old injured QB on a team that could not have gotten any luckier in their run last year? C’mon. Denver was one earlier this year, but I think people have that one figured out. The Bears are making a strong case for being in the hunt for this “honor” in the second half of the year, and have a tough schedule to boot. If you’re looking for these teams in the NCAA tourney, look for 4 and 5 seeds that have spent most of the year out of the Top 25, or big conference schools where you look at their seed and go, wait, they made the tournament?

5. Don’t bet on the enigmas – Goes one of two ways: 1. Teams with good and/or better-than-you-thought records that don’t seem that good, and 2. Teams with bad records that don’t seem that bad. In category 1 this year, we have the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccanneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars leading the pack with the Eagles trailing not far behind (1-2 at hom, 3-1 on the road???). In category 2, you have the Dallas Cowboys (way too much talent for 1-6, and even though they stink, they could put up 30+ any week) and San Diego Chargers, who seem to be benefiting from their regular season reputation from the past couple years. They, too, could end up in the Rule 3 posse by the end of the year, but for now, stay away. If you have a gun to your head or you see a line that falls into Rule 2 above, bet on the category 1 teams (they just seem to win for whatever reason – see last week’s Tampa -3 over Carolina last week), and bet against the category 2 teams (vice versa).

6. If you have any doubts at all, just stay away – There is really no reason to bet on a game you don’t have a strong feeling about. I post my picks here each week, but if I were in Vegas, I’d bet on maybe 2 of them a week. Last week was a rare week where I would have wagered on all three of my locks without hesitation, and I got lucky with the Redskins breakdown that gave me all three wins. There are very few sure things in life, and fewer when it comes to sports, and even fewer when it comes to gambling. (My cat would like to say purrrrrrrr… as he sniffs my face and my evening cocktail… Ketel One on the rocks with bleu cheese stuffed olives, if you’re scoring at home).

If you have a compulsive gambling problem and don’t feel like getting help, then just find a friend and bet something cool, like a six pack of microbrew (sorry, buddy, last time… I don’t promise), a good draft to celebrate the birth of your kids three days apart (paying up to Mojo in a couple weeks), or a “you have to go the movie of my choice and not bitch about it (the wife cheats at these, I swear to God. Editor’s Note – if you want to get out of this, if she picks a movie you can’t stand, e.g., Sex in the City 2, just tell her you’ll bitch anyways and be forced to go to another movie to pay up the bet. She’ll not take you because of the threat to make the experience miserable. At least, that’s what I’ve heard could work). Or do like Kosmo Kramer, take your buddy to the airport, and bet on when the planes will come in. You could make A LOT of cash on US Air and Delta coming in late, especially the Delta flights that are run by the old Northwest. They’re fatally allergic to being on time.

And that, my friends, is how you both win and enjoy gambling at the same time. Jeremy and I take a 10% cut of winnings or a round at the bar, no monthly fee or anything like that. If you use our locks, we trust you will (not) admit to it or pay up. Oh, and I’m not sure if Jeremy is reading this, so please direct all cash to me and I’ll get it to him. If you are Jeremy’s special lady, 1. we need to podcast the sports loyalty thing soon, come visit ARG and let’s make it happen, and 2. I’ll cut you a piece of the cash anyone is dumb enough to send if you don’t tell Jeremy. And yes, I’m making all this up (Editor’s Note – Jeremy’s special lady, I’m not for our plan). We do not endorse gambling outside the states of Nevada, Delaware, the Cayman Islands, South Philly, millions of NCAA office pools, NFL fantasy leagues, NFL suicide pools, friendly wagers between friends, Atlantic City… why the hell isn’t sports betting legal again?

And, in that spirit, I introduce a new feature, bet against Logical Betting! Thanks to my cousin-in-law for the inspiration. If, and only if, I call a game a lock, I will make a friendly and low-cash wager with you on the game. Hit me up via email or text, and we'll work it out. Fair warning - 3-0 so far on locks, and up a sixer - sorry, last time this post. Only because this is the end. My only friend, the end.

Week 4 Picks

If you're not on time, you're late. It suddenly occured to me last night that this is supposed to be "Logical Betting," whereby we talk common sense in sports, which was born of a conversation about "common sense" in picking winners, i.e., this team is just not good (read: Carolina), and yet, I have not provided weekly picks on the NFL games. So sad, Jojo. Luckily for me, the rules of "Logical Betting," if Jeremy and I ever launch that service, state you should rarely, if ever, bet on Weeks 1-3 and 17 of the NFL season, since you know so little.

So without further dee-lay, since ARG and I are chillin' alone this weekend, and typing time will be tough to come by, I bring you this weeks picks. My pick is the one with the spread after it, then letting ya know where the game is being played. We are unoffically brought to you by Yahoo Sports, who supplied the lines for this post.

Green Bay (-14.5) vs. Detroit - I had the Lions finishing second in the division, and they would still be frisky if it weren't for the injuries. Watch out for them next year after they draft a CB, safety, and OL.

Tennessee (-7) vs. Denver - Chris Johnson is drooling for this one.

Cleveland (+3) vs. Cincy - My dad and I can't figure out why the Browns don't just start McCoy. Anyways, line seems way short, therefore, bet that way. I paid for that with Carolina last week, though.

New Orleans (-14) vs. Carolina - See Tennessee v. Denver, and substitute Drew Brees.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs. Baltimore - Banged up Ray Rice = trouble. I can't believe the Stilers are doing this without Big Criminal on the field.

NY Jets (-6) at Buffalo - This line seems kinda short to me, too, but I just can't bring myself to pick the Bills.

San Francisco (+7) at Atlanta - SF isn't that bad... right?

St. Louis (+1.5) vs. Seattle - The Seabirds stink on the road, and I like this Rams team. They are gonna be good in a couple years.

Indy (-8.5) at Jax - Jax is fading fast. AFC South maybe the best division in football. Other than Jax, of course.

Houston (-3.5) at Oakland - Line seems short, but I'm biting on this one. Assuming Andre Johnson plays. If he doesn't, then... yeah, I still like Houston.

Chargers (-8.5) vs. Arizona - This might be the week Derek Andreson finally gets benched. Interested to see Max Hall, they ditched Leinart for him.

Philadelphia (-6) vs. Washington - Phillies clinch fourth division title in a row, and are a near lock to make the World Series. Guess what everyone around here cares about?

NY Giants (-3.5) vs. Chicago - This line screams New York, especially cause Vegas tends to add a point or so against the Giants since so many people bet on them. Sucks cause if the Bears can get this one, they are looking great for the playoffs. Brutal final six for them, with the Lions on the road the only exception, though the Lions could be healthy and frisky again by then.

Miami (-1) vs. New England - Count me in the "not sold on New England" crowd. They get this on the road Monday night, I'm a believer again.

Going to try and start getting these picks up every week now, even if it's without comment. Will track the record, too. I'm 32-0 so far, trust me. "Half my life's in books written pages. Live and learn from fools and from sages."

NFL Preview 2010

In the spirit of my undying need to forsee the future and piss off Iggle fans everywhere, I present to you Logical Betting’s NFL season forecast for 2010. I’m going with forecast this year in lieu of “predictions,” as weatherpeople are forecasters, and get it wrong about 80-90% of the time, which is about my going rate, though the Reds and Giants are still trying to make me look fab in my MLB picks. This is going to be quick hit style, since ARG doesn’t allow for long posts just yet, but is planning on following LB as soon as she can type.

Speaking of pissing off Iggle fans, I was enjoying a nice evening with J.B., ZWR, the wife, and others at J.B.’s place the other night, and we were watching the Iggles/Bengals preseason game. We were talking about the team, and during said conversation, LB made the “unforgiveable” mistake of providing some constructive criticism about the Birds, something along the lines of “they will be inconsistent, probably win a couple they shouldn’t and lose a couple they shouldn’t, and then miss the playoffs in a frustrating growing pains year.” Being as I was sitting with nothing but Iggles fans, I was, of course, branded a “New York loving hater.” So in that spirit, I would like to apologize in advance for the obvious New York slant/homering/bias/what-is-wrong-with-Iggle-fans-ears that will infiltrate this post. We are unofficially brought to you today by Mott’s. Think about it for the reason why.

Sadly for all of you (read: none of you), I don’t have much time nowadays to write up a whole NFL preview, so you’re getting this Random Notes style, with some added commentary on the fave teams of the regular Logical Betting readers. However, I will drop you some quick NFL trivia to make up for my general lazy/busy life: Ranking 2nd all time behind Benedict Arnold, with 61,361 yards, Dan Marino has the highest total career passing yards without winning a Super Bowl. Coming in 5th all time with 49,325 yards, who has the 2nd highest career total passing yards without winning a Super Bowl? Answer at the end, my dear friends.

NFC North

1. Packers – seems like the consensus fave to win the NFC. They have injuries in the secondary, so not really sure why. Guess everyone thinks they can outscore people. Maybe they will. Their defense is rated higher by the “experts” than LB thinks it is.

2 (tie). Lions – yep, jumping out with controversy. I think the Vikings caught the stereotypical lightning in a bottle last year and take a step back. If the Lions can stop anyone, and maybe block just a little bit, I think they can get to 8 or 9 wins. Which, in LB’s eyes, ties them for 2nd in the division.

2 (tie). Vikings – see above. Plus, I really want this to happen just to f*** Benedict Arnold.

4. My Bears, my Bears… I don’t know why everyone is so high on Mike Martz as this supposed genius offensive coordinator. Anyone who’s played Madden could have scored 40 points a game with those Rams offenses. I’m not that excited about my team this year, to be honest. If anything, the Martz offense takes the Bears two best offensive weapons, Olsen and Forte, out of their main scheme. Whatever. I’m going to be following my adopted Browns and what should be a pretty interesting Iggles team more than my Bears. Son of a…

NFC East

1. Cowboys – basically the same team as last year. I think this is by far the best division in the NFC, by the way. Too many weapons and strong pass rush for anyone in the division to get them.

2. Iggles – side note, Mojo and his fam are coming to visit for the Iggles/Lions game Week 2, which means Mrs. Mojo, myself, and our lovely daughters will be in a different room, ready to call the cops to break up the fight, all while trying to keep our children’s first words from having four letters. Tough call on who wins that fight… a very gentlemanly Army ranger versus a South Jersey Eagles fan. I think 2 to 1 on the wife, only cause Mojo is too nice to take out a mom. If we didn’t have a kid, then maybe he puts her to sleep for a minute.

Anyways, I think this is a transition year for your Birds. I think they win two games they shouldn’t, lose two games they shouldn’t (read: Redskins and Jags), and finish with about 9 wins. Next year, though, look out. That defense should be better this year, and then ever better the following year when they finally get a second corner and another safety. Until then, no division title. Playoff birth? Well, LB hasn’t finished writing or deciding on that yet, so sit tight.

3. NY Giants – seriously, I can see them winning 6 games or 12 games. I’m going low on them, though, Eli has never really impressed me and they can give up A LOT of points, which isn’t good when you play the Cowboys and Iggles twice each, and then Shanahan two more times.

4. Redskins – no defense, no weapons on offense. Not a good combination. They will steal a couple games, though, count on it.

NFC South (aka, lamest division in football not named NFC West)

1. New Orleans – their defense was really lucky last year with all those picks, but seriously, who in this division is going to stop that offense? Same formula as last year… hold them under 30, you win. I think it’s gonna work again, personally.

2. Atlanta – absolutely killed by injuries last year. Gonna find out if Matt Ryan plateaued as a rookie, cause this team is running out of excuses to make the playoffs and win a round.

3. Carolina – Can you name the last N**** D*** quarterback who became a decent NFL quarterback? Montana is the last one coming to mind. There’s a reason Claussen dropped. Good running game, aging defense, no quarterback. Last in almost any other division. SI has them making the playoffs for some reason. Check their roster and try and figure out why. JB and I couldn’t, and we had a few beers in us at the time.

4. Tampa Bay – they’re really young, and I like their young coach whose name is escaping somewhere in baby brain. I would know this in the middle of the afternoon. Anyways, gonna be another year or two, but I think they have an upset or two in them, ala the Green Bay game last year.

NFC West

1. San Francisco – kinda like Atlanta, everyone seems to be waiting for them to turn a corner. I don’t see how you can do that with Alex Smith as your quarterback, but then again, Trent Dilfer has a ring an the #5 all time passer doesn’t. Seriously, though, they could win 8 games and win this division by 2. These inter-division games are going to be painful to watch. Sucks for any West Coast readers out there.

2. Arizona – Derek Anderson just beat out Matt Leinart for the starting spot. How far has that guy fallen? Almost as far as Arizona. So many good weapons for Anderson to miss.

3. Seattle – only because someone has to finish third. They suck.

4. St. Louis – but these guys suck more. They might get the first overall pick again.

AFC East

1. NY Jets – everyone’s darling to get the Super Bowl. If no Revis Island, me not think so. Why does everyone love Mark Sanchez? How does he get credit for “leading the team to the AFC title game” when he does nada except hand off to the running backs and cheer for the defense?

2. Miami – Chad Henne is your fantasy sleeper QB this year. Brandon Marshall joins a good running game and a good defense. And the Pats are stepping back, so good time for them to make “the leap.”

3. NE Patriots – Getting older, especially on defense. Merriweather is a beast safety, though. No running game, either. Not looking good for them this year. Bet the under on their win total, whatever it is.

4. Buffalo – another contender for the #1 overall pick next year. I think I could get to their quarterback, that O-Line isn’t good enough to start for the wife’s high school team.

AFC North

1. Ravens – the other “AFC daring” from the “experts.” Count LB in that group, love them. Not much not to love, to be honest.

2. Steelers – the rest of this division is kinda tough to call. Going with the Steelers by default here. The defense and running game should get them through Big Ben’s suspension that should have been a year. Another candidate to take a big step back, though, with the Pats above.

3. Bengals – lots of talent on this roster. If it were 2004.

4. Browns – yeah, so I don’t really see them being that great, either, though as you might have heard on the podcast, my dad is convinced they can get to 9 wins. Yeah. Maybe 7, but I think Delhomme still sucks, since he has for about the last three years, and we’ll see Colt McCoy soon enough. Not enough weapons on offense yet, but there will be by this time next year. O Line is strong, D can get it done. Browns may be the surprise team in 2011, but I think they need a year to get Holmgren’s peeps in place and fire Eric Mangini. Then they bring in a big name coach, draft another weapon or two, and they’re FINALLY heading in the right direction, and could freeze hell over by getting to a Super Bowl in 4-5 years.

AFC South

1. Colts – Jets at Colts rematch for the AFC title? I like the Colts. Colts at the “riding a pathetic division so we have the best record in the AFC” Ravens for the AFC title? Hmmm…

2. Texans – ZWR’s wife is a die hard Houston sports fan, and I told her the other week when they visited I was giving the Texans one more chance before I bailed on them. I have been loving them as a sleeper for three years. The Cushing injury and Daunta Robinson leaving are big blows to that D, though, so this pick is pretty much out of principle. But hey, LB is a man of principle. I’ll be eating these words during the midseason report for sure.

3. Titans – Another team in transition, if you will. Defense is still fairly strong, and they have the best running back in the game in Chris Johnson. Vince Young had a mini-resurgence last year, ala… well, himself, I guess. Sometimes you gotta make these picks by feel, and I’m feeling 6 or 7 wins for these guys, at best. That, and ARG started fussing when I was trying to type their preview, so that must say something.

4. Jags – Not only are they kinda boring, Maurice Jones-Drew is rumored to have a knee injury. Look for them to be playing as the 2nd pro team in L.A. soon, along with the USC Trojans. What, you don’t think they’re getting paid?

AFC West (aka, BOOOOOORRRRRRRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) So sorry to have to put you through this…

1. San Diego Chargers – Really, by default. I feel like I’m saying the same things over and over in this post. And I just realized I’ve either been calling teams by their city or their nicknames, but not both until just now. Oh well. JB is coming over to have beers soon, so no editing happening. But I will use both city and nickname for this division just to make them a little interesting.

2. Oakland Raiders – Another mini-sleeper, which means about 7 wins for this division. Defense has always been good, and I think Jason Campbell adds a few wins to this team. What does that say about how bad a pick JaMarcus Russell was when “Jason Campbell adds a few wins to this team” is a legitimate statement?

3. Denver Broncos – Lost Elvis Dumervil, who I know a lot of you don’t know, but let’s just say he’s a really, really good pass rusher. No more Brandon Marshall, either. I actually had them finishing last initially, then I remembered…

4. Kansas City Chiefs – If they had any offensive or defensive linemen worth a darn, then I’d move them up. But they don’t. Could be good in a couple years. Guarantee they take nothing but lineman the first three rounds of the next draft.

Playoffs – Remember, I get a 10% cut of anyone I pick that you successfully bet against. My hero owes me like a grand.

NFC

Wild Card Round – 5. Falcons over 4. 49ers, 3. Packers over 6. Iggles (they’re better than the Giants, even though their fans wished they could play this game in New York, just for fun).
Divisional Round – 1. Saints over 5. Falcons, 3. Packers over 2. Cowboys (no way they play in the Super Bowl in their own house. Plus, Romo will choke at some point).
Conference Champs – 1. Saints (who dat!) over 3. Packers – The Pack would win this in Green Bay. I just kinda see the Saints as still somewhat unstoppable. By the way, I would bet the over in this game if it were 75.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round – 5. Miami over 4. San Diego, 3. NY Jets over 6. Texans (playoffs, yo!)
Divisional Round – 1. Ravens over 5. Miami, 2. Colts over 3. NY Jets (hell of a rematch)
Conference Champs – 1. Ravens over 2. Colts – yeah, going with the team a lot of experts like. It’s against my principles, but hey, I did pick the Lions and Raiders to have good years and the Pats and Steelers to drop off. If this happened, we could start hearing the “how does this affect Peyton’s legacy” chit chat.

Super Bowl Prediction

Ravens vs. Saints in Dallas – SI likes the Steelers to win it all over the Pack, stating (correctly) that the last few Super Bowl winners have been teams that had somewhat average years the season before, and that no one was expecting to win. And I think that’s pretty true in the NFL. Anyone who plays fantasy football or watches this league at all knows that predictions are somewhat futile due to all the injuries, the role momentum plays both within games and during the season, and the utter stupidity of certain teams and coaches at times(read: Iggles not running the ball against the Raiders 31st ranked running defense last year and losing). Teams s**t the bed at random times in the year that costs them dearly.

I think 2010 will be an exception to the rule. Don’t get me wrong, there will be some surprises, but I think talent wins out this year. The matchup I got here could not be better for the Saints. The Ravens are a really good team, but they can’t hold New Orleans under 31, and while the offense is strong, I don’t think they can get over that number, either. Last second drive by the Ravens falls just short, and we get our first repeat Super Bowl winner in over a decade:

Saints 31, Ravens 28.

Quiz answer: #5 all time in passing yardage and #2 in most passing yardage without a Super Bowl is #1, Mr. Warren Moon, QB of one of the most fun teams to play with in Super Tecmo Bowl. Enjoy the season, everyone. Nystique.