NFL Playoff Predictions

Let me cut right to the chase… the NFL playoffs are going to be f***ing awesome this year. Every NFC team has 10+ wins, the AFC has arguably the two best teams, and you could pretty easily argue any of the NFC teams, and all but one AFC team making it to the Super Bowl, giving us an endless number of potential matchups round to round. It almost makes being stuck in the house taking down Christmas décor and getting the house ready for sale exciting. Hopefully that 6 pack of Sam Adams Blackberry Witbeer will help make the “almost” a reality. And yep, for those scoring at home, since Sam Adams was the first company mentioned today, they are the unofficial sponsor of today’s post. Sam Adams – the beer against which my wife compares all others.

As you may or may not know, I am pretty bad at predicting the NFL of late. I got out to a pretty hot start making picks on my suicide pool emails, but slumped at the end of the year. The NFL was really easy to read from Weeks 4-14, then it completely flipped itself around, making things pretty wild from week to week and really fun to watch. This time around, I’m going without point spreads and will play out my picks up until the Super Bowl, which we will give its due as the second best sporting event of the year, and spend some time breaking down what should be a great game. One more change from my suicide email picks – I’m using my NCAA tournament strategy, which has proven quite successful in recent years and is now jinxed for this year due to this sentence, and going with the KISS principle: keep it simple, stupid/silly/s**t head. For example, 4 seed Kansas is not good. Therefore, pick 13 seed Bradley out of underrated Missouri Valley Conference. That was for a friend of mine who hooked me up into my current NCAA pool and called me the year that actually happened saying, “how in the hell did you pick Bradley?!” My answer to her: Kansas sucks, which they did that year. An NFL example: line seems way too high = lay the points. On that note, let’s talk NFL playoffs.

Wild Card Round

Jets (9-7) vs. Bengals (10-6) – The Jets are my team that can’t get to the Super Bowl, completely due to the fact that they start a rookie QB with 20 INT and that clearly do not trust yet, as evidenced by watching any of their games this year. Their best QB is actually Brad Smith, who serves primarily as a kick returner and a wildcat formation QB. This scenario is usually not a good sign. That does not mean they can’t win this game, though. The Jets were actually better on the road than at home and, even taking out their 37-0 win over the Bengals “we don’t care” first string and their second string last weekend, a better point differential on the year (+75 to Cincy’s +50). They have a strong running game and great defense, always a plus in the playoffs. The weather should be pretty bad, which probably favors them.

The Bengals are kind of tough to figure out. They swept the Steelers and the Ravens, pretty much beat the Broncos, and won at Green Bay. However, in their last 7 games, they were really unimpressive, with their best showing being a good loss, 27-24, at San Diego. Besides, they’re the freaking Bengals. They NEVER win. They’re probably one of the few teams that wins even less than the Lions. They, too, have a strong running game and good defense, so that helps. Ochocinco is hilarious, and, on a more serious note, they have the inspiration of playing for a fallen teammate, usually a good sign for a team looking to win.

KISS Principle – The line says Bengals are a 2.5-3 point favorite, which means Vegas says these teams are even on a neutral field. I think the Bengals are slightly more talented. Plus, they’re playing at home against previously noted rookie QB who looks lost, had 20 INT, and is playing in his first playoff game. I’ll take the more experienced QB in the playoffs. Over/under on Thomas Jones carries – 32.5. Prediction – Bengals 20, Jets 10.

Ravens (9-7) vs. Patriots (10-6) – Yep, I can make a case for the Ravens, and here it is: Good defense, good running game, good vertical passing game, QB who is cool in the clutch and took this team to the AFC title game last year, plenty of veteran players on the team, and a really good coach. All their losses were good losses, including a 6 point loss in New England earlier this year, and they won in San Diego. And they maybe got the best draw of the lower seeds, going to New England minus Wes Welker and a clearly still hurt Tom Brady, then to Indy to face a team that won’t have played a real game in three weeks and is still getting press for not playing its starters when they were 14-0. Though, for the record, all those media saying that the Welker doesn’t vindicate the Colts decision are morons. He didn’t even get hit and he tore an ACL.

The Pats… well, they’re the Pats. Tom Brady at 80% is still a top 5 QB, they have the best coach in the league, and they were 8-0 at home this year. They had a great point differential, and in all honesty, they beat the Colts on the road. They’ve gotten so good that despite their success this year, beating a lot of quality teams and having nothing but good losses, it seems most people are down on them and don’t give them a shot. A team with three Super Bowls flying under the radar? But is the Welker injury too much? And what about the lack of a real running game? Their biggest weakness is in the defensive secondary, which New Orleans pointed out over, and over, and over, and over…

KISS Principle – See, this is where the KISS Principle is key. Vegas has the Pats as a 3.5 point favorite, so just barely better on a neutral field. That and all my research on this game say take the Ravens. If I were gambling, I would take the Ravens and the points. If I were thinking about it, I would take the Ravens. I have literally had to change this pick back at least half a dozen times since starting this post, because I REALLY REALLY want to take the Ravens. (note: I inserted that sentence after re-reading the post for editing, and I’m not making that up). But if I stop thinking for a second, my normal mind would say, “ummmm, idiot? Are you about to pick against Brady and Belichick at home when they haven’t lost there all year and no playoff game there since 2006?” And that is exactly what would go through my head after the Pats won this game. Prediction – Pats 27, Ravens 24 (ugh, this is killing me, I just had to change it again. If that score is reversed, I am abandoning the KISS Principle).

Packers (11-5) vs. Cardinals (10-6) – The Cards are one of the biggest enigmas I have seen in any sport in a really long time. They crushed the Vikings and got crushed by the 49ers. They could literally be the best playoff team in the NFC, or the worst. The over-thinker in me wants to say they’re like a lot of good NBA and NHL teams and just waiting for the playoffs to start to turn it on, especially given that the majority of this team went to the Super Bowl, and they’ve added a running game to boot. They also added an injury to Boldin that is going to hurt them going forward. They were only 4-4 at home this year, for those scoring at home. However, they do have Jesus on their side, since Kurt Warner has a direct line to heaven, and it’s tough to pick against Jesus.

The Packers, meanwhile, have seemingly quietly become the hottest team in football. How many of you knew they were 11-5 before that last paragraph? I did! And so did a family friend of ours back in Michigan, who has season tix to the Pack. Anywho, they actually scored 60 more points than the Cards this year, and that’s with taking out last week’s game that didn’t really count. The Pack has a strong running game, QB, defense, good coach… see where I’m going with this? Those of you on my suicide pool email sure as hell do. I absolutely love these guys, and they are flying completely under the radar. And if they win this, they get a chance to get at Brett Favre in the next round with sweet, sweet revenge on the mind, a busted up Adrian Peterson, and a coach fighting with his QB. That Homer Simpson-esque drooling sound you hear is the sound of Packer nation dreaming of winning this game and getting another crack at Favre.

KISS Principle – Arizona is actually only a 1.5 point favorite, which is not many points to lay for a team at home in the playoffs, especially one with their offensive reputation, which me likey for KISS Principle sake. Typically at least one road team wins in this round, and I’m going with the one that may not only be the best team in the NFC, but the best team in the league right now. Prediction – Packers 31, Cards 21.

Eagles (10-6) vs. Cowboys (11-5) – Saving the best for last for all the Iggle fans who read this blog. Let’s start with a story from work last week. Here is an actual conversation I had with a co-worker before last week’s Eagles/Cowboys game, where the Cowboys were coming off a 17-0 win over the Redskins.

Them: We’re not afraid of the Cowboys, they should have beaten the Redskins by more than that.
Me: Umm, you had to come back from 17 down at home to beat them on a last minute field goal three weeks ago.
Them: Yeah, but they should have won by more.
Me (very insistently): Umm, you had to come back on them IN YOUR OWN BUILDING three weeks ago!
Them: We’re not scared of Dallas, they should have won by more.

Ladies and gentlemen, that, in sum, is 90% of Eagles fans, and the other 10% (some of whom read this blog) agree with me on that. I saw said co-worker on Monday and said, “so are you afraid of Dallas now?” She looked like a scolded puppy and just looked down and said, “I know.” The wife, after previewing this post, just said, “don’t to be mean to girls.” My response, “you wouldn’t have said that if it were any other team but the Eagles.” She said nothing. Moving on… here are some fun facts from the last couple days of reading: the Cowboys have given up the 2nd fewest points in the league this year. The Eagles have only scored 1 TD in 21 possessions against Dallas this year. As my buddy V might say, “rut roh.” Dallas has a lot of weapons… A LOT of weapons. When Romo is on, they are really tough to stop. And if their pass rush is working they can protect their pathetic secondary, kind of like the Pats need to do, but the Cowboys can actually do it (just had to stop myself from changing to the Ravens again. If you gamble, DO NOT bet that game). I think I’m about to vomit in my mouth, but the Cowboys are really good. (GAGGING!!! HELP!!! HEIMLECH, QUICK!!!).

Whew, barely made it. That’s third in line to saying the Y******s are good and N**** D*** football is good. The Lakers are fourth, by the way, but not worthy of the asterisks that the other two are. Anyways, on to the biggest enigma of a team I have ever witnessed, your Philadelphia Eagles. And not just this year’s Eagles, Andy Reid’s Eagles. All 10 years of them. They are damn near impossible to figure out. Before last week, they were my team to get out of the NFC. Now? I mean… they looked worse than when they lost to Oakland. There is some mini in-fighting going on between McNabb and some comment he made about their “young players.” Reid has won a lot of games here, and he has his issues, most notably and annoyingly with play calling (forgets to run) and clock management (forgets the games are timed). However, his players seem to love him and he’s a pretty damn good coach. But how, for the love of God, do you come out and play like that against your arch rival with a #2 seed at stake? That looked like the first game of the preseason. Pathetic and inexcusable. I don’t know how you Eagles fans do it, to be honest. I get extremely frustrated with them, and I don’t care all that much whether they win, other than for the joy of the wife and friends and the benefits for the city I live in.

However, that was one game. The Eagles are loaded on the offensive side of the ball, have a ton of good playmakers on defense, get a lot of turnovers and defensive TDs, and have the biggest X-Factor on either team in DeSean Jackson, who may or may not have a groin problem. They have put up a lot of points, a record for their team this year, and when they’re on, they can beat anyone. I also just found out they are 7-0 in the first round of the playoffs under Reid. But when they’re off, well, I hate to say the Lions could beat them, but Alabama might.

KISS Principle – Vegas has the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite. The Cowboys are one of those teams that get a lot of gambling action, so Vegas tends to skew the line a point or so in their direction (see also: Giants, NY). So call it a toss up on a neutral field. However, the KISS Principle leads us to a simple question: Despite the Eagles 7-0 first round record, do you think the Cowboys, one of the hottest teams around, that has pitched 2 straight shut outs, is about to lose its first playoff game in their new building with 100,000+ fans against their arch rival? My answer: Hell freaking no. Closer this time, but take solace, Eagles fans, I am notoriously bad at picking Philly sports teams. Reid goes to 7-1. Prediction – Cowboys 24, Eagles 19.

Divisional Round

Pats v. Colts – Gonna keep these quicker, since I’m probably gonna miss at least 3 of these first games. If I were Indy’s coach, after Welker got hurt, I would have called a press conference, shown a replay of Welker on the bench, said very calmly, “I told you so,” then left the podium. I love these Pats/Colts games, this is a true rivalry now. The Pats are banged up, and will be even more so after a dog fight with the Ravens, who they WILL beat… I think. Let’s be honest, I have no idea who’s winning the Ravens/Pats game. KISS Principle – Peyton Manning has been a beast this year. Simple, right? See, KISS! Expect a little rust from the Colts, but not for long. Peyton is going to light up the Pats secondary. Prediction – Colts 34, Pats 20.

Bengals v. Chargers – The Chargers are good. Really, really, really good. They are on a roll, have a lot of quality wins, tons of weapons on offense, great defense, and hot as they come. Their only real problem is their coach, Norv Turner, who may or may not be able to win a meaningful playoff game at some point in his life. The Bengals “are who we think they are” (reference? Put it into YouTube and you’ll find out). They don’t have that high a ceiling. I actually should call them a second team that can’t get to the Super Bowl, but they have some talent, and if they get by the Chargers, I think the winner of the other game is susceptible to pretty much anyone. KISS Principle – The Chargers are better. Prediction – Chargers 31, Bengals 13.

Packers v. Saints – I went from thinking the Saints were going undefeated to being quite underwhelmed by, well, their whole team. The Cowboys showed you how to beat them, i.e., get to Drew Brees, which really isn’t that difficult. Press their wideouts, make that O-Line block (which they can’t), force them to run (which they won’t), and you win. The Packers have the corners and the pass rush ability to do just that. The Saints have had a hell of a run, but make no mistake, they have been stumbling and stumbling hard. Picture a toddler learning to walk. The X-Factor is that dome of theirs and a lot of drunk people filling it. For my money, the Saints are a year away. KISS Principle – The Packers are tougher, more balanced, and playing better the last few months. Prediction – Packers 34, Saints 30.

Cowboys v. Vikings – For me, this is the toughest call. Going on the road against a punishing defense after two straight games against your arch rival is a lot to ask for any team. The Cowboys have the talent to do it, though. Can I just say for a minute that no matter who wins in the Wild Card round, and even after this round, the NFC playoffs are going to be f***ing sick! I’m not missing a second of these games. Wife, if you’re reading, don’t make plans for us cause I’m not going. Anyways, the Vikes have been pretty underwhelming themselves of late, too, though looked much better that last game against the Giants, who are maybe the biggest quitters ever. Enough sports stories have taken over the news to get the media off the Favre v. Childress thing for a minute. No truth to the rumor Childress send Gilbert Arenas a thank you note. This game is even on a neutral field. This is not a neutral field. Besides, the idea of picking a Vikes/Packers rematch to get to the Super Bowl is WAY too much to pass up. KISS Principle – When in doubt, especially in the playoffs, take the home team. Even if it is led by a traitor QB. Prediction – Vikings 23, Cowboys 20.

Conference Championships

Chargers v. Colts – Gonna keep these even shorter, for stated reasons above. In this game, the KISS Principle is at odds – the Chargers are the better team. But to take them, you have to go against Peyton Manning at home in the playoffs. KISS Principle tiebreaker – the Chargers have always played the Colts tough, even in their building. And I think they’re the best team in the league right now. Prediction – Chargers 34, Colts 33.

Packers v. Vikings – If this happens, the entire city of Green Bay will be drunk for at least two weeks, the entire week before and after, regardless of who wins. I have to be careful here because other than everyone in Green Bay, no one wants to see Favre go down to the Packers more than me. KISS Principle – Favre has been back down to Earth for awhile now, and the Packers secondary and defense is just too good. And do not overlook the Packers revenge factor. I say Favre throws at least 2 picks in this game, and, God willing, one to end his season again. Prediction – Packers 24, Vikings 20.

That would give us the Chargers v. the Packers in the Super Bowl, which would be a hell of a lot of fun to watch. No matter what, I think this year’s Super Bowl is going to be a great game, with the potential to go down as one of the best in history. If you want to make a little cash, bet against everyone I picked in the first round. But if you seriously want a value bet, take the Packers 9 to 1 to win the NFC, the Eagles 8 to 1 to win the NFC, and the Packers 21 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Apologies when the Cards lay 38 on them in the first round. Enjoy the games, everyone, you could do a lot worse than finding a good six pack, some good friends, and an HD TV for that Saturday night Eagles/Cowboys game. Cheers!