Sweet 16 Chatter

Well, I figure since my brackets are busted I might as well take a run at the Sweet 16. That, and the ladies are way too good to me and have provided, at last count, 31 pages of material for me to go through. Seriously, strong work from the gals, and the potential for a “Steroids Talk” like response. Luckily, I have the Sweet 16, the MLB preview, and, God and J.B.’s work schedule willing, another podcast to give me time to get through it all. Anyways, moving on…

The thing about Sports Christmas… we can get AYS brackets (Are You Serious bracket, for those joining us late), and then your bracket gets busted, and you still don’t care. It’s just perfect in every way. My apologies to the person out there who, rumor has it, filled their bracket out based on the last post, as she apparently was nearing the deadline of her pool entry. My bad. I was griping to a friend that all my pre-tournament sleepers were facing each other, i.e., Purdue/Siena, Cornell/Temple, Richmond/St. Mary’s, Tennessee/San Diego St., and Minnesota/Xavier. Loved a lot of those teams to get the Sweet 16, and thought the winners of all of them would make it. Unfortunately, I only picked Purdue, so I be screwed. The second weekend of the tournament is always filled with crazy good matchups, even more Cinderella potential, and some of the best basketball of the year. So let’s take a look at what we got, break ‘em down, and get some more picks out there. We are unofficially sponsored today by Friskies, my cat’s favorite treats, because he won’t get away from the computer right now and I keep having to move him off the table. He likes the Wildcats of Kentucky to win it all, for the record.

Midwest

Northern Iowa v. Michigan State – even with Kalin Lucas, Northern Iowa is a tough matchup for Sparty. Sparty usually has great down low presence, and outrebounds the hell out of everyone. Been a weird year for them. They have legit top 10 talent, but for whatever reason, never quite got it all together. They have some good frosh on this team, and if they step it up, maybe they pull it off. Northern Iowa comes from an underrated conference and their center looks like he plays guard on the football team. I can’t decide if the moment gets too big for them at some point, and if Izzo steps up and outplans these guys. I think Northern Iowa is better overall, but with a week to prepare, I’ll take Izzo. Give me the Spartans, even without Lucas.

Ohio St. v. Tennessee – Tennessee is loaded, probably better than their record, ala Sparty. Evan Turner is sick, just plain sick. You all should watch this game just to see him before he goes pro next year. Anyways, he’s pretty much good enough to take a team to the Final Four (hint, hint), and should be good enough to get them by the Vols. I’ll take Ohio St.

West

Syracuse v. Butler – Butler is much more experienced than people give them credit for. They are a senior laden team that has been here before. The ‘Cuse should be getting their big man back, and when they have him, they’re damn near unbeatable. Definitely one of the best looking teams in the first two rounds. The ‘Cuse cruise.

Kansas St. v. Xavier – About Xavier, see also, Butler. Kansas St. is also loaded, and handled an underrated BYU team with little problem. They also come from the Big 12, which was the second best conference going in, and now that the Big East “proved itself” in the first two rounds, may have actually been the best conference in the land. The idea of a Syracuse/Kansas St. matchup is WAY too appealing to not pick K-State here.

East

Kentucky v. Cornell – There is nothing in the world that will keep me away from this game. Cornell got completely jobbed by their seeding (as did Temple, FYI), and if you watched them, you know they’re legit. They basically throw it in to this 7 footer who has skills, then if you double him, they kick it out for a team that shoots 43% from 3-point land, and 48% overall. Yeah, have fun with that. And they go to freaking Cornell, so they’re really damn smart. On the complete opposite end of the intelligence spectrum, Kentucky has three frosh, two of whom probably haven’t been to class all year, since they’re going pro at the end of the year. In case you missed it, Calipari’s Memphis team lost out on it’s 38 win season due to recruiting violations, which means the pressure is on for Kentucky to win it before the truth comes out there. That would be three and counting for Calipari, by the way. Maybe he gets a freebie after five. Anyways, Cornell has a really good shot at pulling this off. Do I have the guts to pick against the new tourney faves? Yeah, what the hell, I’m out already anyways. Give me the Red in a classic.

West Virginia v. Washington – Honestly, I have no clue how Washington got here. They have one guy, Pondexter, who’s pretty good. Otherwise, this team has pretty much been the “good” team in a really mediocre conference. Meanwhile, West Virginia was one of the best teams in what we thought was the best conference. Honestly, they should win by 15. But Washington should have lost both their last two games, and this tourney has been pretty nuts, so who knows. Me loves West Virginia, though, and did before the tournament. They should have been Duke’s 1 seed. And they have some awesome whitewater rafting, and how can you go against that?

South

Duke v. Purdue – Before I pick Duke in yet another joke of a game for them, let me point out one more thing about what a freaking cake walk they got. Riddle me this… aren’t the teams that play in the play-in game (which, by the way, counts as an NCAA tournament win for the winning school. I can’t decide if that should really count), supposed to be the 64th and 65th best teams in the tournament? If so, shouldn’t they be playing the overall #1 seed, i.e, Kansas? Why did Duke get them? I mean, it’s kinda mute, cause no 16 seed ever wins, but it’s the principle of the thing. That, and the committee is probably just trying to make it blatantly obvious that they gave Duke a gift. Unless you’re a Duke fan or have a SERIOUS drug problem, you can’t miss that one. Anyways, I got Duke.

St. Mary’s v. Baylor – I have a $20 bet with a friend if it’s St. Mary’s v. Duke, and I got the committee’s darlings. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m gonna get my easy 20 bucks cause this is a really bad matchup for St. Mary’s. They, too, are a highly underrated team; however, their best player is that crazy big guy Shamhan and Baylor is loaded up front, both with size and athleticism. And they’re a Big 12 school. Just a little too much for St. Mary’s, which is saying a lot for how easy this bracket was for Duke when the 3 seed is just a notch better than the 10. Not that St. Mary’s is your typical 10 seed, but I’m just saying. I think I’m being more obvious about the Duke hate than the committee was about the Duke love.

Elite 8

Michigan St. v. Ohio St. – If Tennessee gets by Ohio St., I think Sparty gets there. However, Ohio St. is well coached and guard heavy. Basically, a better version of MSU. It kills me to say this, cause I love Sparty hoops, but gotta go with the Buckeyes here. I will now go cut my fingers off as penance for typing that.

Syracuse v. Kansas St. – Fingers are reattached, thanks to some good health insurance. I told them the wife got pissed during a pregnancy-related fit, and it got covered. Anyways, I’m not missing this one, same as the Cornell/Kentucky showdown. These guys are arguably the two best teams left in the tournament. I think the difference is that Syracuse zone. It’s maybe the toughest defense to play against when they have the right personnel, and they have the right personnel. I think Syracuse gets out early, and then hangs on after K-State figures out that zone. But should be one badass game.

Kentucky v. West Virginia – See also, Syracuse/K-State, except my fingers have been attached the whole time and these guys don’t play zone. This one will be a battle of who controls the pace of the game… can West Virginia slow down the Soon-to-Be Recruiting Violators, or does UK run them out of the gym. If this game is played in the 60s, West Virginia wins. This game will not be played in the 60s. Gimmee the soon to be vacated Final Four appearance for the Cats. My cat just purred in approval.

Duke v. Baylor – Should I even qualify this with a breakdown? Baylor is the worst 3 seed ever, present tournament excluded. Seriously, Pitt and New Mexico are inexplicable, especially Pitt. Though I do think New Mexico is on its way to being the next Gonzaga, as long as Alford stays as coach. Since this game isn’t worth talking about, other contenders for the “next Gonzaga”: Richmond, St. Mary’s, Murray State, and Michigan. Well, maybe not Michigan, that’s insulting the other three… sigh…

That leaves us with Ohio St. v. Syracuse and the potential for the first ever National Title to be vacated (not that Kentucky fans would care) v. Duke. I like Syracuse v. Calipari’s payroll in that scenario, which would have me glued to the TV Monday night, which would be pretty sweet since the wife and I are both off that week. However, this tournament has made no sense since they revealed the brackets. And yes, I intentionally used the words “sense since” together, how many chances do you get to do that? And yes, I’m starting to get tired, and no, it’s not from drinking this time. Which means my picks are probably wrong, since I usually do worse when I over think it. So I encourage you to have a beer, read this, and then decide whether they’re worth betting on.

Hey, what the hell, this is Logical Betting, let’s pick the lines, shall we? This portion of the post is brought to you unofficially by Yahoo, since I went there to look up the lines. Here’s LB’s picks, and I encourage you to go the other way on all of them.

Syracuse -6.5 over Butler – I think they win by 15.
West Virginia -5 over Washington – That line actually seems a bit short to me, but I like WVU anyways.
Kansas St. -5 over Xavier – See above, sub in K-State. Either of the above, I mean, they both work here. It's like a choose your own adventure book, LB style.
Kentucky -9.5 over Cornell – Yeah, I know I picked Cornell. That line says Kentucky by 20. Half the world is betting on Cornell, so you know Vegas dropped the line at least a point.
Tennessee +5 over Ohio St. – Still like Ohio St. to win, just think it’ll be close. And I want to be wrong, so I’m pulling for the Vols. Bruce Pearl is awesome. That’s Tennessee’s coach, for those who don’t know.
Baylor -4 over St. Mary’s – Too much size for Stamhan, but pulling for St. Mary’s so I can take that $20 off my buddy.
Michigan St. -1.5 over Northern Iowa – See Cornell v. Kentucky for more info.
Purdue +8 over Duke – That line is really fishy. I mean, I guess you would never go double digits in a Sweet 16 game, and Purdue did beat two quality teams getting here. Purdue is still dangerously talented, but until I looked up the line, I liked a Duke blow out. If you can’t tell, I picked these on a whim, by the way. So I’m revising from two pages ago and saying Duke wins a close one. In reality, though Logical Betting rules would say stay the hell away from this game, only a compulsive gambler would lay money on that line, in either direction.

Alright, folks, that’s it. Comments and suggestions on the blog, or shoot me an email at the personal email address or logicalbetting@hotmail.com. Many thanks for all the support, and please keep forwarding it on to anyone who likes sports or bad jokes. If you have any comments on past posts, I’m going to see Hot Tub Time Machine this weekend, so I can go back and change it if you want. Cheers!