How Many Wins for Roy?

Ahola and... hello! A quick story for all of you leading into today's topic... the wife and I were out the other night, and the Phils game was on. Halladay was on the mound, and the Phils put up a 3 spot in the first inning. We looked at each other and said, "well, that game's over." And we weren't kidding. No one is gonna beat Halladay this year when he gets a 3 run cushion to start. If you could bet on something like that, you should. Hell, he's already out 4-0 and no one has really gotten too close to him yet. Even that most recent victory didn't seem that close, despite the score. I never got the sense he was losing that game. Anyways, doesn't that make you wonder how many games Roy will actually win this year?

I knew it would, so I set about answering it for you, along with a quick pick from our first OFFICIAL sponsor, www.zoowithroy.com! Yessir, we have an official sponsor, meaning we are 1/100th closer to being a legitimate sports entity. I happen to know the creater of that blog, which is going really well and has been noted in a few publications, including a field of 64 tournament of Phillies blogs. ZWR (our newest LB character - die hard Philly sports fan, creator of zoowithroy.com, and admitted man-crush on Roy Halladay) is also our second guest speaker, so props to him. Z, post those links to where you got props in the paper and online in the comments so you can hook the people up.

A quick peek at Roy's career stats... his career stats, when averaged into your typical 162 game year: 17-9 (66.5% win percentage), ERA in the 3.40 range. That's all with Toronto, and all in the AL East, the best division in baseball for quite some time now. Toronto, not exactly the haven of baseball success the last 10 years or so, for those who don't follow the sport so much. Nowadays, the average starter gets in 32-35 starts per year, assuming no injuries. So Roy here has been getting about 26 decisions in about 34 starts, which equals 77% of his starts. Stay with me, kids, I know I suck at math, but I got the calculator out, so I should be good. And yes, people, I'm well aware the calculator has not helped me at all in the past. I'm counting on Z, who is freaking smart, to make corrections for me in the inevitable follow up to this post.

77% isn't too shabby. If you could sum up Toronto's bullpens in one word, it would be "completepieceofcrap." Roy probably got to 77% by throwing so many complete games. Can't you just see him when the manager comes to take him out? I think he'd rather throw his arm off before giving the ball to the AL East equivalent of Major League. The Phils bullpen is nothing great, but it's better than anything Toronto has thrown out there. Plus, you get the obvious advantages of the NL, where you can pitch around the last two spots in the order. Advantage: Roy. The NL East is right up there in terms of competitive divisions, and the Marlins and Braves run some good lineups out there, but the Mets and Nats should be good for at least 5-6 wins for Roy alone.

I'm going for the high end prediction here, so I'm going to take liberties with the stats and assume historical season, which is definitely in the cards for Roy. Let's say he gets decisions in 87% of his starts, or 6 of every 7. That gets him 30 starts. I'm throwing a bonus one in for historical-standards sake, and getting him to 31 this year. Now, taking a look at his career win percentages again, his best came in 2006 when he won 76.2% of his games in a 16 win season. Not far behind, in 2003 he won 22 games with a 75.9% winning percentage. Just to give you some perspective on this, the Blue Jays never won more than 54% of their games when Roy was there, and won 53% of their games in 2003 and 2006, Roy's best years by percentage. Just how bad would the Jays have been without him? Wow.

So you gotta assume Roy is going to continue to have a better win percentage than his team on some level. If the Phillies win 95 games, they will win about 59% of their games. Let's just take a look at some possible win totals for Roy, based on what his win percentage would be in 31 starts:

76.2% (career best) - 24 wins
80% (about 33% better than his team; he was about 50% better with the Jays) - 25 wins
90% (about 50% better than his team) - 28 wins

No, I seriously don't think Roy is going to go 28-3. You gotta figure, that "percentage better than team" stat I made up is going to go down as your team gets better. But 33% might be possible. Keeping in mind, I'm looking at the high end of what I think is possible, i.e., an absolutely historical season... LB Prediction - Roy goes 26-5, or about 83.8% win percentage.

Likely? No. Improbable? Yeah. Impossible? Hells to the no. You figure that a couple of teams will get him (2-3 losses), the Phils bullpen will mess a few up (5 no decision), and throw in a couple of random occurrences, e.g., loses a pitchers dual to Tim Lincecum, Phils bats go cold (see Sunday, 4/18, and Cole Hamels for more on that), etc. Now, in his own words, the man, the myth, the legend... well, the man. "ZWR, senior editor of the world famous and facebreakingly awesome (LB: and feverishly handsome father of the year) I Want to Go to the Zoo with Roy Halladay (zoowithroy.com)" and his prediction for Roy's season:

"Hey- I got your text, but we were painting and having crap delivered all weekend and I totally spaced out. Sorry. Prediction: 23 wins. He's that good, and so is our offense."

To fill you in, I texted him about sponsoring this post, which is what he's referencing. I then emailed him my prediction, and this is what he said, after the game on Tuesday when Madson managed to blow that game in the 9th after Kendrick channelled his inner Roy:

"Love the optimism. and then you have to factor in the completely undefinable, like tonight's game. Aafter that soul-crushing defeat last night there's no way he allows this team to not win tonight. The man (Roy) is the closest thing to a robot fused with teen wolf and the kid from rookie of the year and Michael Corleone ever. Wait until you see what Yunel Escobar (Braves shortstop) says about him this morning (a few days ago) on ZWR.com"

See, that is why you should check out his blog. It's pretty damn funny. Parantheses mine, by the way, sorry, Z. Thanks again to ZWR for being our first official sponsor. Let me know what you think via comments or email, logicalbetting@hotmail.com if you don't know my personal one. Please keep forwarding it on to anyone who may be interested or has influence in the world. Thanks again for all your support.