MLB Preview

Baseball season is underway, finalmente. Opening Day seems to creep up on us each year, as it falls in the midst of the NCAA tournament, start of the NBA and NHL playoffs, NFL draft, and the Masters. Usually there is some buzz about baseball the first couple weeks, then it cools off til sometime after the NBA finals, then takes center stage for a summer of warm nights, cold beers, and the smell of hot dogs and peanuts blowing in the air. It truly has some romance about it. My favorite thing about baseball is that at any point, you can see something you’ve never seen before. It’s the anticipation, the strategy, the setting up the hitter for the next pitch. It’s a game that’s easy to watch, easy to follow, and maybe the most difficult to understand strategy-wise. I also think it’s home to the most difficult feat in sports: hitting a baseball.

The biggest downfall of our beloved game is the HUGE disparity between the good and bad teams, and the extremely long odds that a bad team can turn it around and be competitive. Most of the small market teams only have a chance to be “okay,” as nearly all of them have big spenders in their division that are going to keep them down. This is one of the reasons I hate the Y*****s… I know they aren’t the only ones spending like mad, but they are definitely the ones that started it. I don’t blame them, though, they’re only playing by the rules. Anyways, this disparity makes predicting the MLB playoff teams relatively easy compared to the rest of the sports, but sucks when you can look at this in April and know with pretty good certainty who most of the playoff teams are. That’s why I’m giving you division breakdowns with predicted order of finishes, and a crack at some of the major awards. You’re welcome! We are unofficially sponsored b y One-A-Day Vitamins – One-A-Day, a legal supplement to help your health.

Before I get started, some disclaimers: I am a die hard Tigers fan, and have adopted the Phillies as my NL team, as I now live in the area. But let me be clear… nothing in the world would make me root for the Phils over my Tigers. I have a semi-affinity for the Red Sox, having lived in Boston for a couple years, and still follow the team a little bit with the help of J.B., who, being born and raised in South Philly, is naturally a Red Sox fan. Even if this is your first reading of Logical Betting, you can tell I hate the Y*****s more than any other team in sports, and have a general distaste for the White Sox and Twins (Tigers killers), and the Mets. Otherwise, I pretty much just love the game and will watch any random game on ESPN. That being said, let’s get going.

AL Central

Gotta start with my boys, of course. The Tigers have had to cut some payroll, due to the sagging economy and Dontrelle Willis. I like the guys they brought in via the Granderson/E. Jackson trade, and thought the Damon signing was a nice stop gap. Their entire season depends on whether Bonderman and Zumaya are healed and whether these young guys pan out. They literally could win anywhere between 70-90 games, which is a big spread. Which is scary for us die hard Tigers fans. No one really made any leaps and bounds in this division, and to be honest, no one is nearly good enough to win it all. See what I mean? I am going to follow the Tigers all year, loving them, agonizing with defeat, cursing Dontrelle Willis (though he had a good Spring… is it possible… nahhhh), and I know that even if they win the division (which they won’t), they aren’t getting out of the first round. Sucks, but true. Mojo is going to ream me for my lack of faith. The Dog would, too, but he’s just happy going to the game, drinking a couple beers, and going home.

The favorites: The Twins. Loved the JJ Hardy signing. Good young pitching. Scary injury to Joe Nathan, though. They weren’t going to win it all anyways, but that pretty much seals it.
Potential sleeper: The Royals. They have some good young bats, Zach Greinke, solid closer, and they play in an average division. Hell, they pretty much single-handedly aided the Tigers to their collapse last year. A-holes.
Predicted Finish: 1. Twins, 2. Tigers, 3. Royals, 4. White Sox, 5. Indians. Seriously, Mrs. J.B., the Indians SUCK this year. They are at least two years away. Decent lineup, but their team ERA might be 100 this year, and so might their loss total for that matter. Just saying…

AL East

The big dogs live here. See, this is where baseball’s economic setup really sucks. The Rays and Orioles have done a good job on a small budget, with the Rays even parlaying that into a World Series appearance two years ago. There was actually an article on ESPN that advocated for a realignment based on either economics or more regional changes that would even out some of these economic disadvantages. I don’t have the link handy, but would be worth a Google. Anyways, the Rays would be the favorites in 3 of the other 5 divisions, giving them the AL West, though not the NL East. The Orioles have done a pretty darn good job of assembling good, young talent throughout their lineup, though probably couldn’t pitch their way out of the College World Series. But these guys have no chance in this division. If the Rays had fans, this would be an outrage. Baltimore fans are just too happy living in such an underrated town, then partying outside at Pickles after games, to make a big stink.

So that leaves us with the Y*****s/Sox argument (I’m calling them the Ys from now on so I can stop counting *s). The Sox are gonna struggle to score runs at times, unless David Ortiz channels his inner 2004, and the Ys don’t have much of a bullpen, though that won’t matter until the playoffs. This division probably comes down to whoever has the better record against each other and the Rays.

The favorites: The Ys. Hard to go against the reigning… ummm… excuse me… BLAGH!!! BLAGH!!! Sorry, had to go vomit my intestines out. Hard to go against the reigning… *dry heaving*... champions. I’ll never get used to this.
Potential sleeper: Well, I’d like to say the Rays, but they have no chance to steal the division. They’ll get the token nod here.
Predicted Finish: 1. Yankees, 2. Red Sox, 3. Rays, 4. Orioles, 5. Blue Jays

AL West

The Angels have traditionally dominated this division, but I think this is the year they go down. Too many defections, and getting too old. Jeremy agreed with my theories on this, but seemed to favor the Angels anyways. Even though the teams in this division aren’t that great, I don’t see that big a disparity between them. And again, none of these teams can win the AL, which is sad, but true. I love what the Mariners did this offseason, and they are an underrated hitting squad. Jose Lopez is due for a bounce back year, and they can pitch with anyone. Since I know none of you care about these teams and probably can’t name more than 2 players on any of them, I’ll just predict and move on.

The favorites: The Angels. Not sure how many times they’ve won in a row, but they are the token favorites. And I’m hoping they lose cause the Rally Monkey is getting pretty old.
Potential sleeper: I’m gonna say the Rangers, only cause I think the team I’m picking to win has been given some props in the press for their improvements this year. If the Rangers can find a way to hold teams under 7 runs per game, they have a shot. Unfortunately, that’s quite the challenge for them.
Predicted Finish: 1. Mariners, 2. Angels, 3. Rangers, 4. A’s. Don’t sleep on the A’s, though, they have some really good arms on that team.

NL East

Rest easy, Phils fans, no one in this division can touch you, assuming no catastrophic injuries and that Ibanez doesn’t dive too far from last year’s numbers. People love the Braves, and I do, too, but not against the Phils. So let’s talk that Cliff Lee thing real quick. First off, you all have NO IDEA how much you will love Roy Halladay. Trust me on this. The Phillies official reason for dealing Lee was the need for prospects. I get that in theory, and it’s a good way to run a baseball team. The problem I have with that in this case is 1. the prospects they got back aren’t that great, and 2. they went and signed Joe Blanton for 3 years/24 million shortly afterwards.

Ummm… okay… for me, you gotta win when you can, and Lee does that for you. Maybe you don’t get the prospects, but with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels as your front three, you are guaranteed back in the World Series. They are definitely the favorites in the NL, but you figure they are gonna get either the Ys again or the Red Sox. Now, they’re going out there with Halladay/Hamels/Blanton vs. either Sabathia/Burnett/Vasquez or Beckett/Lester/Lackey. And their bullpen is suspect, though has great upside. Of course, I’m splitting hairs here, but isn’t the goal to win it all? To me, you take another run at it with the core group they have, cause eventually they won’t be able to afford all of them. Anyways, that said, the Phils are a great team, and I’ll be pretty surprised if they don’t get back to the World Series.

The favorites: Didn’t you read the last two paragraphs?
Potential sleeper: The Marlins. They have a good front two starters (Johnson and Nolasco), at least one other good pitching prospect (Andrew Miller), so-so bullpen, and a good lineup. Their biggest problem is that the Phillies have absolutely owned them the last few years, especially in Florida. No one else in this division did anything of note, though the Nationals could be a little better this year if they find a single starter in that mess other than Strausberg.
Predicted Finish: 1. Phillies, 2 (tie). Marlins, 2 (tie). Braves, 4. Nationals, 5. Mets

NL Central

This might be even easier to call than the NL East. My guess is Vegas has the Cardinals at like 1 to 5 to win the division because no one in their right mind is betting against them to win the division. I think they have the best shot at the Phils, personally… good front two starters, good lineup, solid bullpen, good manager, and the best hitter in baseball in Pujols. I would talk more about them, but most of you probably can’t name those two starters I mentioned, and could care less about this division or the next one, so I’ll just move on again.

The favorites: The Cardinals. If the Phils don’t make the World Series from the NL, the Cards will.
Potential sleeper: Wait, picking name out of hat… actually, let’s legitimately say the Reds. They have some good young arms, and maybe Homer Bailey will actually reach his potential this year. By the way, have any of you seen that Cuban kid Chapman pitch for them yet? He is crazy! If he can find the plate, he’s going to be scary good. Their lineup is pretty good, too, so let’s take them since everyone else in this division stinks.
Predicted Finish: 1. Cardinals, 2. Reds, 3. Brewers, 4. Astros, 5. Cubs (yikes), 6. Pirates (sorry, Fah, your investment isn’t looking too good this year, but they do have some decent young bats).

NL West

I was tempted just to list the picks here, since you guys likely know nada about this division, which is okay because no one is good enough to win the NL. We’ll just mention the Dodgers who are about one year away from being a really, really good team. They could actually challenge the Cards in the Divisional Round if their young starters mature a year quick, but I think the bottom of their lineup will eventually do them in. If the Giants could score at all, they would win the division. Even some of those lame prospects the Phils got for Lee might crack their lineup. Everyone in the media seems to love the Rockies, I guess cause of their lineup, which is pretty darn good. Their starters have gotten pretty good, too, but their bullpen is unimpressive and their starters aren’t enough to keep up in this division.

The favorites: The Dodgers, almost by default.
Potential sleeper: The Giants. If they get the Wild Card, which they might, good luck beating Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez in a five game series. They would win the series 3-1 with scores like 2-1, 1-0, and 3-2 in 11 innings, then lose that one game like 10-2. The Phils are praying these guys don’t get the Wild Card, especially if Zito pitches like he did at the end of next year. If he does, these guys are a lock for the Wild Card, and maybe for this division. Pretty bad when Barry Zito, who has like a 116 million dollar contract, is now the key for a team going from a sleeper to a contender.
Predicted Finish: 1. Dodgers, 2. Giants, 3. Rockies, 4. Diamondbacks, 5. Padres (that is one BAD team, maybe even worse than the Indians or Mets)

Playoff Predictions

What the hell, right? Let’s get ‘em on record:

AL – Red Sox over Twins, Ys over Mariners; Red Sox over Ys (completely out of principle, no way in hell do I pick the Ys, even though I think they’re the better team)

NL – Phillies over Giants (5 game series with have of Philly standing ready to jump off the Ben Franklin Bridge during Game 5), Cardinals over Dodgers; Phillies over Cardinals.

World Series – In Game 3 and with a 2-0 lead in the series, the Phils go to Boston looking to go up 3-0 sending Cole Hamels, former World Series MVP, to the mound vs. John Lackey… wait, that’s right, you traded Cliff Lee for a bunch of AA prospects. Oops. Rewind… in Game 3 of a 1-1 series, the Phils send Joe Blanton to the mound against playoff tested veteran John Lackey. That collective “oh, s**t” you just heard was the sound of all the Phillies fans who read this realizing that could happen. That collective-sounding “f*** Boston” was my wife yelling at me after reading this. Red Sox over Phillies.

And, just for kicks, some postseason awards: AL MVP – Alex Rodriguez (read my lips: MONSTER year), NL MVP – Albert Pujols (seriously, go see this guy play), AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez (the kid is due), NL Cy Young – Roy Halladay (scary what he could do against NL teams).

Teams better than you think: Rangers, Royals, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Marlins, Reds

Teams worse than you think: White Sox, Rays, Cubs, Mets, Indians. Actually, I don’t think the Indians could be worse than I think, but I just want to make Mrs. J.B. mad again.

As Homer Simpson once sang, “Take me out to the ball game, take me out to the ball!” Post your predictions in the comments section and we’ll see who gets it right this year. Please keep forwarding this on to anyone who might be interested, I really appreciate all of you doing that. Comments and suggestions to the comments section, my personal email, or logicalbetting@hotmail.com. Play ball!!!