NFL Preview 2010

In the spirit of my undying need to forsee the future and piss off Iggle fans everywhere, I present to you Logical Betting’s NFL season forecast for 2010. I’m going with forecast this year in lieu of “predictions,” as weatherpeople are forecasters, and get it wrong about 80-90% of the time, which is about my going rate, though the Reds and Giants are still trying to make me look fab in my MLB picks. This is going to be quick hit style, since ARG doesn’t allow for long posts just yet, but is planning on following LB as soon as she can type.

Speaking of pissing off Iggle fans, I was enjoying a nice evening with J.B., ZWR, the wife, and others at J.B.’s place the other night, and we were watching the Iggles/Bengals preseason game. We were talking about the team, and during said conversation, LB made the “unforgiveable” mistake of providing some constructive criticism about the Birds, something along the lines of “they will be inconsistent, probably win a couple they shouldn’t and lose a couple they shouldn’t, and then miss the playoffs in a frustrating growing pains year.” Being as I was sitting with nothing but Iggles fans, I was, of course, branded a “New York loving hater.” So in that spirit, I would like to apologize in advance for the obvious New York slant/homering/bias/what-is-wrong-with-Iggle-fans-ears that will infiltrate this post. We are unofficially brought to you today by Mott’s. Think about it for the reason why.

Sadly for all of you (read: none of you), I don’t have much time nowadays to write up a whole NFL preview, so you’re getting this Random Notes style, with some added commentary on the fave teams of the regular Logical Betting readers. However, I will drop you some quick NFL trivia to make up for my general lazy/busy life: Ranking 2nd all time behind Benedict Arnold, with 61,361 yards, Dan Marino has the highest total career passing yards without winning a Super Bowl. Coming in 5th all time with 49,325 yards, who has the 2nd highest career total passing yards without winning a Super Bowl? Answer at the end, my dear friends.

NFC North

1. Packers – seems like the consensus fave to win the NFC. They have injuries in the secondary, so not really sure why. Guess everyone thinks they can outscore people. Maybe they will. Their defense is rated higher by the “experts” than LB thinks it is.

2 (tie). Lions – yep, jumping out with controversy. I think the Vikings caught the stereotypical lightning in a bottle last year and take a step back. If the Lions can stop anyone, and maybe block just a little bit, I think they can get to 8 or 9 wins. Which, in LB’s eyes, ties them for 2nd in the division.

2 (tie). Vikings – see above. Plus, I really want this to happen just to f*** Benedict Arnold.

4. My Bears, my Bears… I don’t know why everyone is so high on Mike Martz as this supposed genius offensive coordinator. Anyone who’s played Madden could have scored 40 points a game with those Rams offenses. I’m not that excited about my team this year, to be honest. If anything, the Martz offense takes the Bears two best offensive weapons, Olsen and Forte, out of their main scheme. Whatever. I’m going to be following my adopted Browns and what should be a pretty interesting Iggles team more than my Bears. Son of a…

NFC East

1. Cowboys – basically the same team as last year. I think this is by far the best division in the NFC, by the way. Too many weapons and strong pass rush for anyone in the division to get them.

2. Iggles – side note, Mojo and his fam are coming to visit for the Iggles/Lions game Week 2, which means Mrs. Mojo, myself, and our lovely daughters will be in a different room, ready to call the cops to break up the fight, all while trying to keep our children’s first words from having four letters. Tough call on who wins that fight… a very gentlemanly Army ranger versus a South Jersey Eagles fan. I think 2 to 1 on the wife, only cause Mojo is too nice to take out a mom. If we didn’t have a kid, then maybe he puts her to sleep for a minute.

Anyways, I think this is a transition year for your Birds. I think they win two games they shouldn’t, lose two games they shouldn’t (read: Redskins and Jags), and finish with about 9 wins. Next year, though, look out. That defense should be better this year, and then ever better the following year when they finally get a second corner and another safety. Until then, no division title. Playoff birth? Well, LB hasn’t finished writing or deciding on that yet, so sit tight.

3. NY Giants – seriously, I can see them winning 6 games or 12 games. I’m going low on them, though, Eli has never really impressed me and they can give up A LOT of points, which isn’t good when you play the Cowboys and Iggles twice each, and then Shanahan two more times.

4. Redskins – no defense, no weapons on offense. Not a good combination. They will steal a couple games, though, count on it.

NFC South (aka, lamest division in football not named NFC West)

1. New Orleans – their defense was really lucky last year with all those picks, but seriously, who in this division is going to stop that offense? Same formula as last year… hold them under 30, you win. I think it’s gonna work again, personally.

2. Atlanta – absolutely killed by injuries last year. Gonna find out if Matt Ryan plateaued as a rookie, cause this team is running out of excuses to make the playoffs and win a round.

3. Carolina – Can you name the last N**** D*** quarterback who became a decent NFL quarterback? Montana is the last one coming to mind. There’s a reason Claussen dropped. Good running game, aging defense, no quarterback. Last in almost any other division. SI has them making the playoffs for some reason. Check their roster and try and figure out why. JB and I couldn’t, and we had a few beers in us at the time.

4. Tampa Bay – they’re really young, and I like their young coach whose name is escaping somewhere in baby brain. I would know this in the middle of the afternoon. Anyways, gonna be another year or two, but I think they have an upset or two in them, ala the Green Bay game last year.

NFC West

1. San Francisco – kinda like Atlanta, everyone seems to be waiting for them to turn a corner. I don’t see how you can do that with Alex Smith as your quarterback, but then again, Trent Dilfer has a ring an the #5 all time passer doesn’t. Seriously, though, they could win 8 games and win this division by 2. These inter-division games are going to be painful to watch. Sucks for any West Coast readers out there.

2. Arizona – Derek Anderson just beat out Matt Leinart for the starting spot. How far has that guy fallen? Almost as far as Arizona. So many good weapons for Anderson to miss.

3. Seattle – only because someone has to finish third. They suck.

4. St. Louis – but these guys suck more. They might get the first overall pick again.

AFC East

1. NY Jets – everyone’s darling to get the Super Bowl. If no Revis Island, me not think so. Why does everyone love Mark Sanchez? How does he get credit for “leading the team to the AFC title game” when he does nada except hand off to the running backs and cheer for the defense?

2. Miami – Chad Henne is your fantasy sleeper QB this year. Brandon Marshall joins a good running game and a good defense. And the Pats are stepping back, so good time for them to make “the leap.”

3. NE Patriots – Getting older, especially on defense. Merriweather is a beast safety, though. No running game, either. Not looking good for them this year. Bet the under on their win total, whatever it is.

4. Buffalo – another contender for the #1 overall pick next year. I think I could get to their quarterback, that O-Line isn’t good enough to start for the wife’s high school team.

AFC North

1. Ravens – the other “AFC daring” from the “experts.” Count LB in that group, love them. Not much not to love, to be honest.

2. Steelers – the rest of this division is kinda tough to call. Going with the Steelers by default here. The defense and running game should get them through Big Ben’s suspension that should have been a year. Another candidate to take a big step back, though, with the Pats above.

3. Bengals – lots of talent on this roster. If it were 2004.

4. Browns – yeah, so I don’t really see them being that great, either, though as you might have heard on the podcast, my dad is convinced they can get to 9 wins. Yeah. Maybe 7, but I think Delhomme still sucks, since he has for about the last three years, and we’ll see Colt McCoy soon enough. Not enough weapons on offense yet, but there will be by this time next year. O Line is strong, D can get it done. Browns may be the surprise team in 2011, but I think they need a year to get Holmgren’s peeps in place and fire Eric Mangini. Then they bring in a big name coach, draft another weapon or two, and they’re FINALLY heading in the right direction, and could freeze hell over by getting to a Super Bowl in 4-5 years.

AFC South

1. Colts – Jets at Colts rematch for the AFC title? I like the Colts. Colts at the “riding a pathetic division so we have the best record in the AFC” Ravens for the AFC title? Hmmm…

2. Texans – ZWR’s wife is a die hard Houston sports fan, and I told her the other week when they visited I was giving the Texans one more chance before I bailed on them. I have been loving them as a sleeper for three years. The Cushing injury and Daunta Robinson leaving are big blows to that D, though, so this pick is pretty much out of principle. But hey, LB is a man of principle. I’ll be eating these words during the midseason report for sure.

3. Titans – Another team in transition, if you will. Defense is still fairly strong, and they have the best running back in the game in Chris Johnson. Vince Young had a mini-resurgence last year, ala… well, himself, I guess. Sometimes you gotta make these picks by feel, and I’m feeling 6 or 7 wins for these guys, at best. That, and ARG started fussing when I was trying to type their preview, so that must say something.

4. Jags – Not only are they kinda boring, Maurice Jones-Drew is rumored to have a knee injury. Look for them to be playing as the 2nd pro team in L.A. soon, along with the USC Trojans. What, you don’t think they’re getting paid?

AFC West (aka, BOOOOOORRRRRRRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) So sorry to have to put you through this…

1. San Diego Chargers – Really, by default. I feel like I’m saying the same things over and over in this post. And I just realized I’ve either been calling teams by their city or their nicknames, but not both until just now. Oh well. JB is coming over to have beers soon, so no editing happening. But I will use both city and nickname for this division just to make them a little interesting.

2. Oakland Raiders – Another mini-sleeper, which means about 7 wins for this division. Defense has always been good, and I think Jason Campbell adds a few wins to this team. What does that say about how bad a pick JaMarcus Russell was when “Jason Campbell adds a few wins to this team” is a legitimate statement?

3. Denver Broncos – Lost Elvis Dumervil, who I know a lot of you don’t know, but let’s just say he’s a really, really good pass rusher. No more Brandon Marshall, either. I actually had them finishing last initially, then I remembered…

4. Kansas City Chiefs – If they had any offensive or defensive linemen worth a darn, then I’d move them up. But they don’t. Could be good in a couple years. Guarantee they take nothing but lineman the first three rounds of the next draft.

Playoffs – Remember, I get a 10% cut of anyone I pick that you successfully bet against. My hero owes me like a grand.

NFC

Wild Card Round – 5. Falcons over 4. 49ers, 3. Packers over 6. Iggles (they’re better than the Giants, even though their fans wished they could play this game in New York, just for fun).
Divisional Round – 1. Saints over 5. Falcons, 3. Packers over 2. Cowboys (no way they play in the Super Bowl in their own house. Plus, Romo will choke at some point).
Conference Champs – 1. Saints (who dat!) over 3. Packers – The Pack would win this in Green Bay. I just kinda see the Saints as still somewhat unstoppable. By the way, I would bet the over in this game if it were 75.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card Round – 5. Miami over 4. San Diego, 3. NY Jets over 6. Texans (playoffs, yo!)
Divisional Round – 1. Ravens over 5. Miami, 2. Colts over 3. NY Jets (hell of a rematch)
Conference Champs – 1. Ravens over 2. Colts – yeah, going with the team a lot of experts like. It’s against my principles, but hey, I did pick the Lions and Raiders to have good years and the Pats and Steelers to drop off. If this happened, we could start hearing the “how does this affect Peyton’s legacy” chit chat.

Super Bowl Prediction

Ravens vs. Saints in Dallas – SI likes the Steelers to win it all over the Pack, stating (correctly) that the last few Super Bowl winners have been teams that had somewhat average years the season before, and that no one was expecting to win. And I think that’s pretty true in the NFL. Anyone who plays fantasy football or watches this league at all knows that predictions are somewhat futile due to all the injuries, the role momentum plays both within games and during the season, and the utter stupidity of certain teams and coaches at times(read: Iggles not running the ball against the Raiders 31st ranked running defense last year and losing). Teams s**t the bed at random times in the year that costs them dearly.

I think 2010 will be an exception to the rule. Don’t get me wrong, there will be some surprises, but I think talent wins out this year. The matchup I got here could not be better for the Saints. The Ravens are a really good team, but they can’t hold New Orleans under 31, and while the offense is strong, I don’t think they can get over that number, either. Last second drive by the Ravens falls just short, and we get our first repeat Super Bowl winner in over a decade:

Saints 31, Ravens 28.

Quiz answer: #5 all time in passing yardage and #2 in most passing yardage without a Super Bowl is #1, Mr. Warren Moon, QB of one of the most fun teams to play with in Super Tecmo Bowl. Enjoy the season, everyone. Nystique.