Thanks, Manny! Thanks, Barry!

With a special assist from Manny Ramirez, who successfully avoided the first 100 game suspension in baseball history (so little publicity from maybe the best right handed hitter of his generation) and Barry Bonds (a-hole who cost me tons of retirement cash by cheating/making the value of about 15 rookie cards I have of his about the same as Alex Avila), I get an excuse to re-post two of our more popular posts from the archives.

Talked steroids a bit back when Mark McGwire admitted to using, and recorded a podcast with a "baseball guy in the know."  He brought great knowledge, and many thanks again to him for doing the podcast.  Talked about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, who we thought would get in, etc., and you can get more detailed thoughts in the full post.

Check out the steriods podcast here.

In the meantime, you can read the full transcript of the steriods post below.  This is pre-"get to the point, LB" but well worth the read, as it was unanimously the most popular post we've done.  Check it out on ye ol' "read more" button.

New post next week.  Contact Logical Betting at logicalbetting@gmail.com and twitter.com/logicalbetting.


Let’s talk about drugs, kids. Shocking revelation about a month ago when Mark McGwire admitted to using steroids. The funny thing was, not that many people noticed cause everyone already knew. It was like an afterthought on Sportscenter, and not just guess Gilbert Arenas and the NFL playoffs were dominating sports headlines at the time. You know it’s not that big a deal when it gets aired on the MLB Network. Don’t you wonder if these guys realize that we all already know they were juicing? I mean, when you go in front of Congress and they ask you if you used, and your answer is, “I’m not here to talk about the past,” and you invoke the Fifth about nine times, what do you expect us to believe? I would love to know if he was claiming innocence to his family and friends, and if so, how many of them actually believed it. I still think Sammy Sosa all of the sudden forgetting how to speak English was the high point of that hearing, with a close second to Rafael Palmiero pointing to the camera insisting he hadn’t used, then testing positive like three weeks later, leading us to wonder if that was ‘roid rage in front of Congress. But I digress.

One of my best friend’s called me after McGwire, aka Captain Obvious, told us what we already knew and he seemed pretty disappointed, which surprised me a bit. We talked about steroids in baseball for awhile, how it affected a game where you can actually compare stats from generation to generation, how history will judge this group of players, who would you be shocked by if they admitted to steroid use, etc. In the end, he really put it best: “I used to think of records and sports, especially when we were running (in high school), as how much I could challenge the limit of what my body could do, and now I don’t know if that’s true for baseball.” Wow.
I hadn’t thought about steroids in awhile, to be honest, and McGwire’s admission didn’t really get my attention that much, nor many sports fans for that matter. Apparently it wasn’t that big a story since the interview aired on the MLB network and not 60 Minutes or something like that. If he hadn’t gotten the job as the St. Louis hitting coach, I doubt we would have heard from him at all. However, we can thank him for temporarily bringing this topic up and allowing me to ramble about a few of the key questions surrounding the Steroid Era. At least the ones I like to talk about.

Does anyone care that guys were juicing?

Well, my buddy, me, and the wife all do, so that’s at least three. I’m guessing a lot of you out there do, too, knowing the general population to which I speak. However, there are a lot of baseball fans out there who could care less that they were juicing, and on top of that, could care less if they still are. Think about this for a second… both Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez were either caught and/or admitted steroid users within the past year. How did the fans react when they came back? They cheered! They could have cared less. It was almost like they were welcoming back a guy from a serious injury or who they felt was unfairly suspended. Anyone see the reaction from the fans when McGwire came back for his first press conference? They cheered and crowded the place so much they pretty much had to cancel the whole thing. Reeeeeeeal outraged about that steroid thing, weren’t they?

I know at least one guy who says he could care less if they were juicing, are juicing, and if they removed all the steroids rules, wouldn’t mind. He’s a pretty die hard baseball fan, I might add. I think the reason people care more in baseball than in other sports like football, where fans don’t even blink about guys testing positive and getting that 4 game suspension for the first offense, is that, in theory, baseball stats can transcend eras. Of course, you’re going to have some variance, e.g. the Dead Ball Era, the Steroid Era, and now playoff records being pretty much defunct with the addition of the Wild Card round, but for the most part you can compare stats and players and have some meaningful debate about which player was better and why. Steroid use completely tarnishes this era because we don’t know for certain who was and still is using and so many records have been broken that it ruins a lot of the debate. And if you think that these guys aren’t using designer steroids, or that people haven’t come up with ways to beat the tests, you’re crazy. That doesn’t even take into account that they still aren’t testing for HGH.

Really, the whole thing is a joke, led by a commissioner who is a joke, in an era where it doesn’t bother the players what the fans think about their juicing because they absolutely cashed in on the whole thing. Purist baseball fans, such as myself and my boy who suggested this post, who actually enjoy watching a good pitchers duel and care about the steroids thing, will continue to care and be disappointed when more guys test positive. However, I think the general public really doesn’t mind all that much and would prefer to see 10-9 games with baseballs being launched out of the park every 5 minutes. Until they test for HGH and start doing Olympic-style steroid tests with automatic one year suspensions, players are doing to keep testing positive. Oh well. Makes those perfect games and no-hitters that much sweeter.

Would it shock you if Player X came out as a steroid user?

Maybe I’m wrong and the fans do care, but at this point are so disillusioned by it all and/or just assume that any and everyone could be a past or current steroid user. That brings us to a “Tiger Woods” type question… who would shock you as a steroid user? Remember, A-Rod and Manny may have surprised you, but we’re looking for shocking revelations. To qualify, this would need to a stud player, face of baseball type guy, perennial All-Star… you get the idea. My buddy posed this question almost immediately after calling me, and my first answer was, “nobody.” I really did mean it at the time.  I came up with Tim Lincecum eventually, but only cause of his scrawny frame. However, I don’t think he would count as shocking. While he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, not a whole lot of casual fans know who he is, which is remarkable for a guy who’s won 2 straight Cy Youngs. Anyways, since I haven’t done a list in quite a while, and I’m starting to get the shakes, here is a list of those I would be shocked by:

1. Derek Jeter – I’m pretty sure that Bud Selig would marry him if he could, but he’d have to beat Joe Buck and Tim McCarver to the altar. Jeter is every media person’s golden boy. If you don’t believe this, watch the Y*****s sometime and see how the announcers frame it if and when Jeter makes an out. Let me know if he gets ANY part of the blame, e.g., swung at a bad pitch, fouled off a good pitch to hit, etc. Never his fault. Ever. I’m convinced the dude could hit .200 and the media would make excuses for him. Anyways, he seems like a pretty class guy, doesn’t have the stereotypical steroids body, hasn’t gotten all that much bigger since he started playing, and has everything in the world to lose if he were to test positive, including tons of endorsement money. And after imagining hearing that he used, my initial reaction was shock. So he makes the list.

2. Chase Utley – He is big in the community around here and shares the same body-type-that-hasn’t-changed dynamic with Jeter. He also has a whole lot to lose by testing positive and seems to get the injuries that are more indicative of a guy busting his ass, rather than someone doping up. Dude is also married to a pretty hippie-chick type, and the two actually do really great work with the local Humane Societies around here. Just can’t possibly see him doing it. He’s right on the cusp of that “stud player, face of baseball” type of guy. It would definitely be a shock here in Philly, and I think he’s made enough of a name for himself nationally to qualify as shocking, too.

And that’s my list. The wife said Ryan Howard, but I think he’s a big enough guy that I would be really surprised, but not completely shocked. Ryan Howard is also the wife’s favorite player, so while she would be shocked, most people in Philly love Chase over Ryan. Other contenders that didn’t qualify: CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Mariano Rivera (probably the next closest, hasn’t he been strangely durable?), and Albert Pujols. Would love to hear your ideas on this one, by the way, if you’d care to email or comment.

Should they be in the Hall of Fame? If so, who?

This is probably the topic that gets the most interest and is the most debatable. The biggest and most obvious problem is twofold: one, we don’t know for sure who was and wasn’t using, and two, how much better did steroids make the guys who were using? In a nutshell, even if you assume everyone was using (which you can’t), you can’t possibly quantify how much steroids helped one player versus another. Quite the bind, right? For those who don’t know, baseball decides it’s Hall of Famers based on a percentage vote of the Baseball Sports Writers of America, and they must receive 75% of the vote (writers can vote for up to 10 players per year) to get elected, and have 20 years to get that, or they have to be picked by the Veterans Committee. If they ever receive under 5%, they’re no longer on the ballot. Players are eligible for the Hall 5 years post retirement. In other words, it’s up to these dudes to decide how much steroids should count in terms of who gets in and who doesn’t.

For kicks, I took a quick peek at the all-time career home run list to look for Steroid Era guys, then arbitrarily decided that 20% of their home runs could be attributed to steroids. I also assumed all of the guys could have been using, though I doubt all of them were. So here are the Steroid Era players who are in the top 30 all-time with their actual total and ranking, then 80% of their total and where that would move them down to on the list.

1. Barry Bonds, 762 career HR, goes to – 5th, 610; 5. Ken Griffey, Jr., 630 goes to – tie for 25th, 504; 6. Sammy Sosa, 609 – goes to 28th, 488; 8. Mark McGwire/Alex Rodriguez, 583 – goes to 31st, 467; 11. Rafael Palmiero, 569 – goes to 33rd, 456; 12. Jim Thome, 564 – goes 34th, 452; 15. Manny Ramirez, 546 – goes to 37th, 437; 18 (tie). Frank Thomas, 521 – goes to 42nd, 417; 24. Gary Sheffield, 509 –goes to 44th, 408; 30. Carlos Delgado, 473 – goes to a tie for 61st, 379.

We know some of those guys juiced already, (wife says most of them), some are still actively playing and have been since “testing” started, and like I said, I doubt all of them used, e.g., Ken Griffey, Jr. and Frank Thomas are probably innocent. But that list sure makes you wonder how much steroids really did play a role, right? I haven’t heard of any writer saying what criteria they are using in determining whether to vote, though I’ve heard anecdotally that they are generally taking into account whether the player would have been a Hall of Famer if they hadn’t used steroids. That is really hard to decide, too, but not a bad general rule of thumb.

If I had a vote, which I should, I think I would go with the “would they have been a Hall of Famer anyways” rule, too. And I actually think the solution to whether these guys should get in is simple… just let the writers continue to decide. Think about it. Guys need 75% to get in, so you’re going to get the majority opinion about the influence of steroids from a group of people who know the sport better than most. Besides, there is no fair way to determine how much influence steroids really had. That is by far the easiest way to do this. Cue Bud Selig unveiling a mathematical formula that all Hall of Fame voters are mandated to use in their decision making. What’s that you say? Who would I vote for if I had a vote? Why, of course I’ll share my opinions with you! I’m so flattered… here’s my in/out list for the guys I just mentioned:

In: Bonds, Griffey, Jr., A-Rod, Manny, Frank Thomas
Out: Sosa, McGwire, Palmiero, Sheffield, Delgado.

Not really sure: Thome – wife says user, but I don’t know. I think he’s a borderline Hall of Famer if you assume he did and used the “would he have been in the Hall without them” criteria.

You may ask yourself, Frank Thomas and not Sosa? For me, it’s simple. Sosa was a clear user whose career significantly benefited from use, and I doubt that Thomas used. And Sosa’s appearance in front of Congress where he all of the sudden couldn’t speak English completely sealed the “I’m horribly guilty” deal. You may also ask, why no mention of pitchers? Other than Clemens and Pettite, no other big names have been linked to steroids. Plus, I think that Clemens would have been in and Pettite would have been out without them, so it’s an easy one for me. I really don’t think McGwire is getting in, and Sosa will be a really interesting case. If he doesn’t get in, then the guys who arguably saved baseball in the summer of ’98 would both be out of the Hall. And maybe that’s for the best. It’d be a good way for baseball to say, “yeah, our testing is crap, but if we happen to get lucky and catch you, you’ll pay in the end.” In all reality, that’s probably the best compromise that MLB is going to get in terms of those two guys. Disgraceful, if you ask me. Like my buddy said before, sports is supposed to be about pushing the limits of your physical abilities, and these guys completely violated that rule. Thanks for saving a sport I love, guys. F-you for the way you did it.