Controlling Your Desiny - NFL Playoff Locks, Week 3

Destiny.  Good for karma.

One of the most annoying cliches in sports has to be "so and so team controls its own destiny."  Really?  Lucky them.  Also not true, per se.  Thankfully for all of us, I was able to scour the Internets for minutes and minutes to find a website devoted to listing all the teams that control their own desiny.

Wait for it...

http://www.espn.com/

Last time I checked, doesn't every team start 0-0?  Doesn't every team, then, control its own desiny?  This is just bothering me lately for some reason.  I guess it started with the BCS title game, where Alabama proved everyone (including me) wrong, and they absolutely deserved to be in that game.  On talent at least.  (side note - BCS is going playoff soon!  I swear!)  Did I think Stanford, Oregon, Oklahoma State deserved to be in?  Absolutely.  My answer to them?  Don't lose to Iowa State.

Seriously, I was that mad.

Perfect example.  Was out at a bachelor party with a couple of fellow Michigan fans who were griping about our loss to Iowa this year.  Their reason?  "The refs screwed us on the last play."  To get you up to speed, Michigan had 1st and Goal around the 5 with about 20 seconds left.  Failed to get in the first three plays, and had a pass broken up on 4th down that may or may not have been interference. 

 LB Response (gritting my teeth...) - In football, there are approximately three downs before 4th down.  In addition, there are 59:40 played before the last 20 seconds.  Fact check it, I swear its true.  Call that a lock, too.  Stupid Mich.

Even better example.  In the first week of making these picks, I called the Steelers over the Broncos a lock, completely ignoring the "the line seems weird, bet the other way" rule.  I lost.  Last week, I luckily did not call the Saints a lock, but strongly suggested they could be, again, ignoring the same rule noted above.  Take the L overall, but not on the locks side, thankfully.  I did, however, call the Packers a lock, ignoring the "don't bet against good-bad teams" rule and losing a six pack in the process.  Ironically enough, the very same "good-bad" Giants won me a six pack over the "bad-good" Falcons.  By ignoring my own rules this week, I controlled my destiny straight into a 1-3 week, though 1-1 on locks. 

After last week's debacle, I'm right back where I started at .500 (4-4), though 3-2 on locks.  So I'm putting the past behind me, and guaranteeing promising strongly believe that I'm going 3-0 from here out.  And yeah, I could avoid calling anything a lock and say I won, but I don't need to do that.  Because, just like the Kansas City Royals, I control my own destiny.

NFC

NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) - Fishy line (friend at work, "shouldn't that be a pick?"  LB - Yes, yes it should) + good bad team (now good good team, Giants) vs. enigma-ish Niners (I mean, are they really that good?  NO had 4 turnovers... Alex Smith???) = LB confusion.  The world loves the Giants, and I sort of do to... which is why the line says more to me than anything.  Biggest factor:  Weather is supposed to be crap the next few days in SF, meaning slow track.  Edge Niners.  LB says - For the love of all things sacred, don't bet on this unless its for fun or you can afford it.  And since LB rules state only bet when it's fun and you can afford... I'll take... ugh.

To think a little longer before taking the wrong side digress, I never recommend betting the over/under, but the under 42/41.5 is really intriguing in this game, especially if you like the Niners.  I'd parlay the Niners and the under in Vegas or Delaware.  LB rules say... fuck it, I'm ignoring the lines rule again ignoring the lines rule again... dammit, I can't help myself.  No way calling this a lock.  Score - Giants 24, Niners 13.  Though if you were to actually follow the rule about the lines, which is THE most solid LB rule... Niners 23, Giants 14.

AFC

Baltimore at New England (-7) - Has there ever been a tougher team to peg than the Ravens?  Lots of good wins, lots of bad losses.  Lots of talent, some of which is getting old.  The Pats... can they play defense?  Seems like it all of the sudden.  This line actually started in the 7.5-8 range.  I thought it was about right.  Pats seem like good value, probably the most likely to cover the spread of the four remaining.  I don't love them as a lock, but I vowed to make one, so they're it.  Besides, remember who's on their side???

Pumped after Pats win!

LB says - Bet the Pats.  Score - Pats 34, Ravens 24.

And, because it was fun to do, here's where I would set the lines for potential Super Bowl matchups:

Patriots -7.5 over 49ers
Patriots -3 over Giants
Ravens -3 over 49ers
Giants -1.5 over Ravens

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