Military Style Decision Making, Sports Version

As I listened to Game 7 between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers,  I was gripped by how close the game was from start to finish.  My wife and I were driving back from my niece's graduation party in DC,  and we got home in enough time to turn on the game on our Roku.  (LB Note - that is not a Pokemon, nerds).  The only problem was the amount of people watching the game made it impossible to stream.  Therefore, I sat on my couch and listened to the last few minutes.  

Told you Mrs. Mojo was hot

When it was over, I was happy for Cleveland and still in awe that they came back from 3-1 down.  It made me immediately think to text LB and ask if this had been better than the Boston Red Sox come back against the Yankees in 2004.  (He was living in Boston at the time).  He immediately made several distinctions between the two that pointed out how hard it was to judge.  It was clear that there was no clear way to decide if I had just heard the best 7 game series comeback or not.  Thus began the quest for the answer to the question, "What 7 game series comeback is the greatest of all time?"  Well, we have our minimally researched and completely emotion riddled answer below that will stand as the unofficial official fact until slightly challenged.

First and foremost, we have to determine the criteria to compare each to one another.  We will choose one from each of the Game 7 series sports, then give them a rating in each of those criteria.  This will result in a +,-, or N (neutral) rating based on how amazing or unamazing each one was: + is worth 2 points, N is 1 point, and – is worth 0 points.  Then I will compare the 3 leagues against the 4 criteria in a military decision making style process (LB Note - education time, people).  More to follow on how that works.  First let’s define the criteria:

1. LOSING TEAM:  How good the other team was. we will take a look at roster, injuries, and season records. Naturally, the better the team, the harder comeback.  The better the team, the better it is for the rating.

Totally underrated

2. WINNING TEAM:  How good the winning team was.  Was this a number 1 versus 2 or did the 8 seed upset the reigning champs?  The more of an underdog the better for the rating.

3. ROAD TRIP:  What advantages they had at home and what disadvantages of overcoming games on the road; it is always harder to win away.  More road wins or winning the last game on the road will be better for the rating.

4. BLADE RUNNING:  How close and how often the eventually winner came to elimination.  Once, twice, or more the better for the rating.

Second and not so foremost, we have to do is choose the 7 game series that we want to compare from each sport; sadly for you football fans,  there will be no NFL here.  (LB Note - half the country just asked, "wait, what other sports?")

NBA

It was easy to choose the NBA one:  Golden State and Cleveland 2016 NBA Finals, the series that spawned this entry. You may wonder why I didn’t choose one where the winner came back from a 3-0 deficit; that is because in the NBA it HAS NOT HAPPENED…YET!  I heard one commentator say early in the year that the Warriors were so good other teams were trying to figure out how many years until theywould not dominate and build their teams for that year, because doing it now seemed like a waste.  As late as May 31st, 2016 the New York Times columnist Harvey Araton wrote how the "Golden State Warriors are Playing a Different Game" and deemed them a 'basketball mutation' seemingly invincible.  Team-wise they had an amazing run.  They won 73 games during the season, a record and one more than the storied '95-'96 Bulls. They had the league MVP in Steph Curry.  On the flip side, Cleveland also had an amazing roster with Lebron, a former MVP, and Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. 

One for the wife

However, these were the top seeded teams and were expected to be in the final.  Therefore, Cleveland as the winning team gets a (-) rating as they were the second best team in the league.  The historic feats of the Warriors makes the strength of the losing team a (+) rating.  Some of those feats of the Warriors I got when LB responded to my text and chimed in with some amazing considerations.  The Warriors only lost at home twice ALL SEASON, yet the Cavaliers beat them 2 times at home in the series and Game 7 was in California.  Road trip earns a (+).  In order to win, the Cavaliers had to defeat Golden State for 3 straight games, something that hadn't happened to the Warriors since 2013.  However, the Cavs were only down 3-1 and in Game 5 went into the 4th quarter up 9 and in Game 6 Cavs opened up the first quarter 31-11, so they were not close to elimination until the Game 7, so blade running is a (N).

MLB

Easy to choose the baseball one - Yankees and Red Sox 2004 ACLS.  (LB Note - HAHAHAHAHAHA Y*****s fans!!!)  The losing team were the AL East champions, New York Yankees, with 101 wins that season.  They were clearly not expected to be on the wrong side of the most amazing MLB comeback in history.  That clearly gives this series a (+) in the losing team column.  The Red Sox however, were also very good, finishing second only to the Yankees.  This leaves them a (-) in the winning team column.  In terms of Road Wins, they were able to avoid the sweep and win the extra inning Games 4 and 5 at Fenway, but had to close out the last two games in Yankee Stadium.  Winning Game 7 on the road is amazing, but having two at home to avoid the extra innings losses were valuable home field advantage.  For that, their Road Trip rating is (N).  Blade Running is a clear rating I think in this case.  After losing the first 2 games at Yankee stadium, they got shellacked at home in Game 3 19-8.  

What Torre was huffing after Game 7

It would take a special team to recover to avoid the sweep, let alone win 4 in a row.  The Red Sox were down one run in the bottom of the 9th in Game 4 facing one of the greatest, if not the greatest, closer of all time, Mariano Rivera.  (LB Note - best in my book, only Y***** I actually like).  They not only scored on Mariano, won in the 12th inning and avoided the sweep, but took the series.  Game 5 also went to extra innings with Boston winning in the 14^th.  They took Game 6 just 4-2 before blowing it up in Game 7 to win 10-3 off Johnny Damon’s grand slam and another 2-run homer.  For this, their blade running clearly is a (+).  It remains the only 3-0 series comeback in MLB history proving just how unlikely a victory it was. 

  

NHL

LB loves you

It was a bit harder to choose the NHL one.  In the end, I had to go with the 2010 Series between the Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins.  The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings of 1942 is considered a great one as well and the only 3-0 deficit overcome in Stanley Cup Finals history; yet there were only 7 teams back then and team played different series lengths that made it hard to compare the two.  The Flyers comeback in 2010 over the Bruins was got the nod because it had not been done in 35 years, they were a 7 seed, they were down in Game 7 3-0 before winning 4-3, and they were on the road.  Only 4 of 182 times (2.2%) has a team down 3-0 come back in the playoffs.  

Let’s look at why the Flyers was so special.  In terms of the losing team the Bruins were a 6 seed, so that is not special.  A 6^th seed is not that hard to beat or shouldn’t be based on performance in the season. For that, they are a (-) rating.  In terms of winning team, the Flyers were just a 7 seed, which makes it all more unlikely that they would accomplish such a feat of overcoming a 3-0 deficit, even if against a 6^th seed.  For that, they earn a (+) rating.  Game 5 and 7 were won in Boston, but Game 4 which was won in overtime was in Philadelphia as well as a close 2-1 win in Game 6.  Therefore, it was good to win Game 7, but they had some home ice advantage in two key games and thus earn a rating of (N).  In terms of blade running, they were down 3-0 games and avoided the sweep by winning Game 4 in overtime.  Then in Game 7, they were down 3-0 in the first period before coming back to win 4-3; scoring with 7:18 remaining and holding on to that lead.  For that they earn a rating of (+).   

What's everyone doing Thursday?

Thirdly and finalmost, we have to compare against the criteria.  In order to do this, I will use the military decision making process style of comparison.  This is how it works.  Each entry (NBA, NHL, MLB) will be rated on each criteria.  They earn a rating of 0,1, or 2.  We have to decide if we are golfing or bowling (low score is better or high score is better) and in memory of the BONI Bowling league; we are going bowling and thus a (+) is 2 points  Therefore, in each criteria if the team did something amazing, they are awarded the (+) which translates to 2 points.  If they did something commendable, but expected, they get a Neutral rating worth 1 point.  If they failed to achieve something expected of a high caliber team or where not given the chance to make an amazing feat in that area they are assigned a (-) and receive 0 points.  We add up the total at the end and the highest is the winner.  In the event of a tie, the military commander makes the decision as to what criteria is the most important and looks for the winner in that column.  If there is still a tie, the commander makes the decision.  In this case, our commander with be the LB.  (LB Note - all our friends just s**t themselves at that thought).

CRITERIA COMPARISON CHART

             

	NBA	MLB	NHL
LOSING TEAM	2	2	0
WINNING TEAM	0	0	2
ROAD TRIP	2	1	1
BLADE RUNNING	1	2	2
TOTAL	5	5	5

Conclusion:

In an unforeseen, unbelievable finish, all three come out on a tie.  Therefore, this blog author has to request LB to be the final judgment call on the WEIGHT of criteria.  He must decide which criteria is the most important, thus carries the most weight, and therefore the winner.  If his choice of criteria still results in a tie then he will have to choose between the two that are tied.  He cannot change the ratings or say bad things about the author but can only rate criteria and give his reasoning.  

BOOM!

Oh, f**k me, I thought I had the week month two months off of actually thinking about what I was writing, not just babbling like a mess then copy/pasting interviews with our kids!  Damn you, Mojo, always making me a better person... alright, fine, I'll settle this debate, attempting to follow that mildly complicated, but seemingly highly effective military decision style.  But if I find out you made it a tie on purpose... well, I won't do anything because you're stronger, faster, and just SLIGHTLY better trained than I am.

So first I guess I have to judge the criteria... I give the most weight to Losing Team and Blade Running.  I think who you beat, and how close you got to losing, combined, means the most.  I am personally more impressed by who you beat, so I would rate it Losing Team, Blade Running, Winning Team, then Road Trip.  If I'm reading the military rules right, which I hope I am so I don't get put on restricted duties, I can only go by my first choice, Losing Team.  That is a tie for me.  I know I'm not allowed to change the ratings, but allow me to pretend to so you can better understand my eventual decision here.

NBA - My only beef with Mojo's analysis is the N for blade running.  Just because they were ahead by 9 in Game 5 doesn't minimize what they did the first four quarters in Oakland.  Like he said, the Warriors were 40-2 at home last year.  This is a + for me, I'm adding a point.  LB NBA Total = 6

MLB - I'm debating whether to add to the road trip rating... however, after Googling it, stats show that home field advantage is minimal in baseball.  I'll stick with his rating here.  However, I reserve the right to pick this one anyways just to stick it to the Y*****s.  Maybe I'll just leave this pic here instead...

NHL - I think we could write a post on whether the Wings/Leafs series was more deserving of comparison, but it's Mojo's lead here, so we'll leave that.  I would actually move the Winning score from + to N because they beat a 6 seed, making it more likely they could pull the upset.  We have seen 8 seeds win the Stanley Cup, for example.  Home ice means very little in the NHL playoffs, and I agree with the blade running, too.  LB NHL Total = 4

LB Conclusion - The wife is going to accuse me of picking the Cavs to rub in the LeBron v. Jordan debate that will probably define our marriage, but if I were using the military decision making style, I would go with the Cavs over the Warriors.  My initial instinct when he said he was writing this was the Red Sox over Y*****s series, but the margin between the best teams is so much greater in the NBA.  On top of everything else, the Cavs were about a 67% favorite in Vegas in that series.  If the series were a contest between both teams 4-8th best players, the Dubs would have been like a 95% favorite.  Which is exactly why I think LeBron may be the best player of all time.  Not the one I would take to start a team, but the best actually basketball player of all time.  But I digress... your temporary commander is going with the Cavs.

It was legitimately hard for me to refer to myself as "commander" there, and only did so because Mojo referred to me in that regard.  I'm going to have the very distinct honor of running with some RWB Eagles at his base in a few weeks, and I can't wait.  It will be the first time in over 19 years Mojo and I have run together.  Fah and I broke that streak for ourselves July 4th, so glad we are knocking those records back.

Wow, we actually wrote a legitimate sports post.  Solid.  It's back to serious next time we get around to writing, which will probably be after I see Mojo, we have a few beers, and kick around what should be an awesome, enlightening topic.  In the meantime, do your homework and read this book.  We hope this finds you enjoying your summers with your friends and family.  If you liked what you read, see below Mojo's addendum to his post, which gives some more insight into his thinking for his decisions.  Maybe that Cornell education did pay off... Hasta.

NBA

There are no teams that overcame a 3-0 and only 10 teams that have overcome a 3-1 deficit.  Golden State become the 9^th the round before by coming back over the OKC Thunder.  Cleveland was the longest city without a championship in a major sport.  This had to weigh on Cleveland, especially because they fell short the year prior.  The town went crazy and has invigorated the Indians to play some tough baseball, as they rest atop the AL Central.

HONORABLE MENTION:

Boston vs. Philadelphia, 1981

Eastern Conference Finals

Game 5: at Celtics 111, 76ers 109

Game 6: Celtics 100, at 76ers 98

Game 7: at Celtics 91, 76ers 90

This was a series for the ages. Boston erased a six-point deficit in the final 1:51 of Game 5 to stay alive, scoring the final eight points. In Game 6, Boston was down by 17 in the second quarter and 15 in the third before rallying again. And one more comeback awaited in Game 7, the Celtics finding a way back from a seven-point hole midway through the fourth quarter. The last 3 games were decided by two points or less…talk about blade running…that is blade sprinting. 

MLB

There is only 1 team to overcome a 3-0 deficit and only 10 teams that have overcome a 3-1 deficit. Red Sox own the last two (2007, 2004).  The 2004 ALCS was over their rival Yankees and sent them to the World Series where they ended an 86 year drought of the title.  Boston was rocking so hard scientist claimed they might knock the earth off its axis (NOTE: This is not a valid study and by that I mean it is BS).

HONORABLE MENTION:

Detroit vs St. Louis, 1968

This is in the World Series (only 4 of the 10 were) and Detroit won the final two on the road to win at a pivotal time for the city.  They were tearing themselves apart in the street over racial tensions and the National Guard had to roll tanks down Woodward Ave.  Proof that sports can bring people together.

NHL

There are four teams that have come back 3-0 but only once in the Stanley Cup.  Through 2016, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 287 times.  Only 28 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.

HONORABLE MENTION:

Detroit vs Toronto, 1942

As quick as I pump up Detroit I have to face the music that their loss here is worth noting.  It is the only 3-0 comeback in a championship.  There were few teams in the league and the playoffs were run different, so it was hard to choose this as the best NHL comeback, but it was close.  My favorite part of this was that Detroit’s coach was suspended for the series after Game 4.  In the fourth game, trying to complete a sweep, a Red Wing refused to leave the ice after a penalty and the referee dropped the puck and gave the Red Wings a penalty for too many men on the ice.  After the game, Red Wing Coach Jack Adams repeated punched that referee in the face with a profanity laced outburst.  Welcome to Detroit!