Embarking on the one year anniversary of Logical Betting, and suddenly, it occurred to me… I’ve never actually posted the rules of Logical Betting. Henceforth! (my new fave word), I shall bring to thee, loyal readers, the rules of Logical Betting, which are unofficially brought to you by rulers and whoever makes them.
First, in case you forgot, a quick recap of how Logical Betting got its name: Jeremy and I were having a few libations amongst friends, and talk somehow got to making fun of those Vegas point spread services where they guarantee their “lock of the year/lock of the century” every week, and beg you to call and use their services. We were making fun of how people tend to overthink everything, and if you just think about things logically, you really don’t need to pay all that cash for someone to give you the answer that, most times, is pretty simple. We decided we should open our own non-statistically based service, and call it Logical Betting. So these are the rules of Logical Betting, if and when Jeremy and I decide to start it, based mostly on NFL spreads, but it works pretty much across all sport. The phone number, incidentally, will be 1-800-USE-BRAIN.
1. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose – You would think this goes without saying, but hey, remember one of the principle philosophies of my ramblings… follow the cash, and you have your answer. Gambling is supposed to be fun. This rule guides the rest of the rules, which are designed to minimize stress and maximize excitement. Set aside whatever you can lose, and bet that however you so choose. If we can find a way, LB the gambling service will be checking bank records for affordability. Obviously, I will not be in charge of that, since I do math at about a 3rd grade level. Maybe we’ll get Fah on that, he used to do banking, he can probably use a calculator.
2. Never bet on the first three weeks or last week of the NFL season – This actually runs in contradiction to a lot of gambling “experts.” We say don’t bet because you know nothing. They say bet because Vegas knows nothing. Guess what? Vegas ALWAYS knows something. Stay away, it’s just safer. As far as the last week, same thing goes. Too many teams benching starters, bad teams mailing it in, you know the story. Same thing, count your winnings from the year, sit back, and wait for the playoffs before you start gambling again. Or find an NBA game to bet on, if you must.
3. If the line seems way too obvious, bet the other way – For my cousin-in-law who walked into this trap and will be paying when I take him on his inaugural trip to the local microbrew heaven, here is how I knew the Lions were a lock over the Redskins the other week: Vegas gives three points to the home team off the bat. The then 1-5 Lions were a 2.5 point FAVORITE over the then 4-3 Redskins who were giving up under 20 points a game. So Vegas is telling you this game is a pick on a neutral field. Riddle me this… if the Lions and Redskins were playing a game tomorrow on a neutral field, knowing what you know after the game they played the other week, would you take the Lions straight up? I wouldn’t even think about it. I actually ignored this the same week by taking Seattle +2.5 over Oakland. Raiders and Seahawks a pick on a neutral field? Ummmm… so yeah, I should have stuck with an obvious Oakland line, but live and learn.
4. Don’t bet on bad “good teams”, bet against them – These would be teams that when you hear their name you think, “hey, they’re not bad,” when in reality, it is the total opposite. This works best when picking your NCAA tourney brackets, but applies to the NFL, too. This year’s absolute perfect example is the Cincinnati Bengals. As you may have noticed, last week I called Miami a lock over Cincy last week. Cincy is so far freaking overrated it’s unbelievable, and they’re 2-5!!! Just keep playing against them, you’re sure to make out. Minnesota falls in here, too, though I wouldn’t bet against them every week. But seriously, a 41 year old injured QB on a team that could not have gotten any luckier in their run last year? C’mon. Denver was one earlier this year, but I think people have that one figured out. The Bears are making a strong case for being in the hunt for this “honor” in the second half of the year, and have a tough schedule to boot. If you’re looking for these teams in the NCAA tourney, look for 4 and 5 seeds that have spent most of the year out of the Top 25, or big conference schools where you look at their seed and go, wait, they made the tournament?
5. Don’t bet on the enigmas – Goes one of two ways: 1. Teams with good and/or better-than-you-thought records that don’t seem that good, and 2. Teams with bad records that don’t seem that bad. In category 1 this year, we have the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccanneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars leading the pack with the Eagles trailing not far behind (1-2 at hom, 3-1 on the road???). In category 2, you have the Dallas Cowboys (way too much talent for 1-6, and even though they stink, they could put up 30+ any week) and San Diego Chargers, who seem to be benefiting from their regular season reputation from the past couple years. They, too, could end up in the Rule 3 posse by the end of the year, but for now, stay away. If you have a gun to your head or you see a line that falls into Rule 2 above, bet on the category 1 teams (they just seem to win for whatever reason – see last week’s Tampa -3 over Carolina last week), and bet against the category 2 teams (vice versa).
6. If you have any doubts at all, just stay away – There is really no reason to bet on a game you don’t have a strong feeling about. I post my picks here each week, but if I were in Vegas, I’d bet on maybe 2 of them a week. Last week was a rare week where I would have wagered on all three of my locks without hesitation, and I got lucky with the Redskins breakdown that gave me all three wins. There are very few sure things in life, and fewer when it comes to sports, and even fewer when it comes to gambling. (My cat would like to say purrrrrrrr… as he sniffs my face and my evening cocktail… Ketel One on the rocks with bleu cheese stuffed olives, if you’re scoring at home).
If you have a compulsive gambling problem and don’t feel like getting help, then just find a friend and bet something cool, like a six pack of microbrew (sorry, buddy, last time… I don’t promise), a good draft to celebrate the birth of your kids three days apart (paying up to Mojo in a couple weeks), or a “you have to go the movie of my choice and not bitch about it (the wife cheats at these, I swear to God. Editor’s Note – if you want to get out of this, if she picks a movie you can’t stand, e.g., Sex in the City 2, just tell her you’ll bitch anyways and be forced to go to another movie to pay up the bet. She’ll not take you because of the threat to make the experience miserable. At least, that’s what I’ve heard could work). Or do like Kosmo Kramer, take your buddy to the airport, and bet on when the planes will come in. You could make A LOT of cash on US Air and Delta coming in late, especially the Delta flights that are run by the old Northwest. They’re fatally allergic to being on time.
And that, my friends, is how you both win and enjoy gambling at the same time. Jeremy and I take a 10% cut of winnings or a round at the bar, no monthly fee or anything like that. If you use our locks, we trust you will (not) admit to it or pay up. Oh, and I’m not sure if Jeremy is reading this, so please direct all cash to me and I’ll get it to him. If you are Jeremy’s special lady, 1. we need to podcast the sports loyalty thing soon, come visit ARG and let’s make it happen, and 2. I’ll cut you a piece of the cash anyone is dumb enough to send if you don’t tell Jeremy. And yes, I’m making all this up (Editor’s Note – Jeremy’s special lady, I’m not for our plan). We do not endorse gambling outside the states of Nevada, Delaware, the Cayman Islands, South Philly, millions of NCAA office pools, NFL fantasy leagues, NFL suicide pools, friendly wagers between friends, Atlantic City… why the hell isn’t sports betting legal again?
And, in that spirit, I introduce a new feature, bet against Logical Betting! Thanks to my cousin-in-law for the inspiration. If, and only if, I call a game a lock, I will make a friendly and low-cash wager with you on the game. Hit me up via email or text, and we'll work it out. Fair warning - 3-0 so far on locks, and up a sixer - sorry, last time this post. Only because this is the end. My only friend, the end.
