New Logical Betting Rule and Week 1 Picks

Well, almost anyone can win...

One of the coolest things about the NFL is that anybody can win pretty much every year.  Always a sneaky team, even if they are 7-9 making the playoffs, then winning as a two touchdown dawg (I'm not linking this, you should know about Seattle doing that... oops).


Anyways, the Rules of Logical Betting have long been discussed and have long been successful.  But let's face it, change is good.  Gotta adapt to the times, ya know?  So with that, we unveil an addendum to Rule #2...


2a.  One can bet in the first three weeks, if it's a "high scoring ridiculous offense" team vs. a "we know you're gonna be bad" team.

So the rationale here is that the NFL has basically done all it can to make playing defense impossible.  Can't hit the QB, can't touch a WR, etc.  I'm not big on reciting stats, but let's just say we'll probably be calling this the "offense" era at some point, and we're gonna have to rethink the whole 5,000 yard season things for quarterbacks.

My picks are based on the LB rules, of course, and as always, email or tweet me if you're interested in a friendly wager.  Keeping in mind I'm about 70% on my locks the last few years, ah thank you!  Until then, please gamble offshore responsibly until New Jersey wins its lawsuit and legalizes sports betting for the rest of the country.  That law that restricts sports betting, by the way, is anything but logical. 

First, my quick predictions for the year, then on to the week one picks...

Better than you think - Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Buffalo
Worse than you think - Houston (they'll win the division, but by default), Detroit, Atlanta

NFC Playoffs - Dallas, Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, Chicago (WC), Tampa Bay (WC)
AFC Playoffs - New England, Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, Denver (WC), Pittsburgh (WC)

Super Bowl - New Orleans over Green Bay, New England over Baltimore - New England over New Orleans

Week 1 Picks

NY Giants (-4) vs. Cowboys - I'm not sure the Giants were even in the top 5 best teams last year, but the Cowboys always find ways to lose games like this.

Kansas City (+3) vs. Atlanta - I love love love the Chiefs here.  I'd parlay this in Vegas with the LB lock...

Philadelphia (-8.5) vs. Cleveland - The Browns won't score over 14 here.  Parlay Chiefs +9, Eagles -2.  Done and done.  Philly is a LB lock this week, using Rule 2a.  Not that Philly has a Pats type offense, but it's pretty good.  And my dad, die hard Browns fan, agreed with me that there may not be a win on the Browns schedule.

Washington (+9.5) at New Orleans - Just a hunch they cover.  This is a big stay away for me.  Interested to see how the Saints react with the scandal and hurricane and all.

New England (-6) at Tennessee - So that makes the Pats a 9 point fave on a neutral site.  That seem low to anyone else?

Houston (-11) vs. Miami - Okay, so I'd call this a lock because Miami might not score all year, but I'm going on record to say that Houston will be the worst 11-12 win team in the history of the NFL, especially after the inevitable Andre Johnson injury.

Bills (+3) at NJ Jets - Upset special!  Bills 23, Jets 13.  Over/under 2nd quarter when Tebow chants begin.

Minnesota (-4) vs. Jacksonville - The only reason anyone's watching is if they have Percy Harvin or MJD on their fantasy teams.  Taking the Vikes cause I always err on the favorites.

Colts (+9) at Chicago - If Urlacher plays, I'd go the other way.  I think the Colts are gonna lose a lot, but be a pain in the neck this year.  Bears win outright.

St. Louis (+9) at Detroit - See above, minus the Urlacher thing.

Green Bay (-5.5) vs. San Francisco - Game of the week.  That line seems high.  We'd be gambling if this were Week 5.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) vs. Carolina - The line on this is everywhere from 1 to 3.  Which means no one knows a thing about these guys.  See why Rule #2 exists?  Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 24.

Seattle (-3) at Arizona - John Skelton?  Really?  Can I get paid $4 million to be second string to John Skelton?  Way to go, Kevin Kolb.

Football stuff!

Denver (-1) vs. Pittsburgh - This game is a test if this whole Manning thing is gonna work out.  How ironic if the Broncos lose this after Tebow beat them in the playoffs last year?

The "Is Parenting a Sport" post is coming, sorry for the tease. Contact Logical Betting at logicalbetting@gmail.com and twitter.com/logicalbetting.  America's pasttime is back, baby!!!  And yes, I purposely did not mention the Michigan game.  And yes, I'm still drunk.  Hasta.