Providing Incentives and the Week 4 Picks

Noble

As you may know, and if you follow the Twitters, we at Logical Betting like to post the nice things that athletes do.  You know, like not cheating on their wives and crashing their car in an Ambien filled stooper on Thanksgiving night or something that.  I seriously still can't believe that happened... ahhh, memories.

So when I saw the following story, I had a feel good moment that I just had to share with you, my loyal... here's it is:
Melky Cabrera, admitted juicer, recused himself from the NL batting title.

I gotta say, I was impressed.  He's probably giving up some bonus in his contract, and more than that, it's just the right thing to do.  Then, after thinking about it, I wondered how the hell it could be possible a cheater could win the title in the first place.  How is that not against the rules???



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I am a huge, huge fan of the books Freakonomics and Superfreakonomics, and if you haven't read them yet, you're missing out on a wealth of easy and simple to apply knowledge that explains A LOT about human behavior.  And trust me, I work in the "human behavior" field, these guys are on point with what I've seen.  And you can even pick it up at your local bookstore!  (For our under 15 readers, that's a store that sells books).

Basically, the authors there simply explain incentives, i.e., why we do or don't do what we do, and the simple logic behind phenomena.  So my thought is, why can't we apply this to sports?  If Melky my man there knew he would be suspended, without pay, for a year if he tested positive, would he have cheated?  Maybe, but I'm guessing "50 games and an apology with said feel good headline" up there isn't deterring people as much as "1 year and 10% of your salary fine" might.  What about the following incentives?

- In the 48 hours before the lockout, NHL owners gave more than $200 million in contracts, knowing full well they were going to lockout and require salary reductions.  Want to fix out of control spending?  Make them pay every fucking dime.

- NFL wants to ramp up player safety?  If you are found to be dealing out illegal hits, e.g., helmet to the head, that causes conscussion/missed time, you are suspended without pay for the length of time it takes the other player to come out.  Same applies for NHL.

- Any American League pitcher or National League reliever (read: don't have to pick up a bat) who beans someone has to play his next game without a cup.

Wait, how will they drink Gatorade?

- If any athlete is arrested in any sport, they must complete a 30 second PSA in which they apologize for their actions and say what they did is wrong.  Our kids look up to you, please try not to be a d-bag for a few years.  Alternative - silent video of them writing, "I will not..." 100 times on a blackboard ala Bart Simpson.

- Owners who perpetually field crap teams, give out bad contracts, and turn monster profits are required to refund a portion of season ticket holders costs.

Before the picks, time to introduce our new segment, "Proof of Mayan Doom," where we find more and more evidence we're all going to die this December at the hands of our Mayan overlords.  Going with NFL proof this week, until I can find something funny, because I made this up about five seconds ago:

Proof - Current NFL standings - Arizona 3-0, Minnesota 2-1, Green Bay 1-2, New Orleans 0-3, Detroit 1-2, Pittsburgh 1-2, New England 1-2, Denver 1-2.  Raise your hand if you had those.  Right.

I'm bringing the incentive base to me, too, and going with the simple side, minimal locks.  The philosophy that had me like 17-3 in half a year two years ago when I started this.  One of the main rules of gambling here is the minimalist approach.  We're bringing it back.  That, and on the advice of our doctors, we've committed to drinking more.  We love fall brews.  Let's do this!

Week 4 Picks - 5-9-1 last week; 20-23-1, 0-2 Locks for the year

Baltimore (-13) v. Cleveland - The theme this week is, "okay, I'll bite."  I have a hard time believing the Ravens can't stay 2 touchdowns ahead of the Browns.

Houston (-13) v. Tennessee - Tennessee and Jacksonville are confusing me.  That's a big line, though.  I might actually be sold on Houston.  They have definite lock potential, but not this week.

Kansas City (+1) v. San Diego - The same Chargers that were 3 point favorites vs. Atlanta are now a 1 point dog?  Okay, I'll bite.

Atlanta (-7.5) v. Carolina - Uhhh, isn't Matt Ryan the MVP right now?  Aren't the Falcons and Texans Super Bowl favorites right now?  I know it's only Week 3... Okay, I'll bite.  And make this an LB lock.

Seattle (-2.5) at St. Louis - This is all I'm gonna say about that Monday Night call... you can't really blame the refs in all this.  They aren't qualified for the job.  Like I said a couple weeks ago in the NHL post, are they supposed to turn it down?  It's like asking a 1st grade teacher to teach an MBA course at Penn tomorrow.  It's not like they can't... they just can't right now. 

San Francisco (-4) at NY Jets - I'll say it... Tebow completely sucks in NY right now.  If this ref thing wasn't going on, we might be hearing more about that.

New England (-4) at Buffalo - Okay, I'll bite.  Tempting to make this a lock, too.  Actually, let's not, but I'd play this game in a tease.  Did everyone notice my 3 team tease hit last week?  Ah, thank you!

Detroit (-4.5) v. Minnesota - Speaking of weird lines and teases... and Stafford may not even play.  You know, the 2011 QB draft class is looking pretty strong nowadays.  Even Gabbert is showing signs of life.  Ponder might be legit.

Arizona (-6.5) v. Miami - See, isn't that a weird line?  Tannehill on the road against a current top 3 defense?  Okay, I'll bite... again.

Oakland (+6.5) at Denver - I have a haunting suspicion we may have underestimated the transition period for the Broncos.  AFC West games always seem to be close, don't they?  I just jinxed the Raiders...

Cincinnati (-2) at Jacksonville - This is, by far, the weirdest line on the board.  So weird, I'm calling this a lock.  The Bengals can really score.  I like them by 10.  And this is really an "I'll bite," that Jags team is so weird.

Tampa Bay (-3) v. Washington - I still like the Bucs, even at 1-2.  They play tough.

Green Bay (-8) v. New Orleans - Either New Orleans gets their heads out of their asses and wins this game by a nose, or Green Bay takes their rage out on the high school secondary New Orleans rolls out there.  I'll take the latter.

NY Giants (+2) at Philadelphia - When was the last time the Giants lost a road game?  When was the last time the Eagles looked good, i.e., won a game by more than a point?  Say it with me, "okay, I'll bite."

Chicago (+4) at Dallas - Cutler has looked like crap the last couple weeks, but if they can run the ball a little and neutralize that rush, the Dallas secondary sucks.  I like the Bears to win outright.

There you are, you're there!

Contact Logical Betting at logicalbetting@gmail.com and twitter.com/logicalbetting.  In case you're wondering, the shelter is complete and ARG likes to pretend to blow up Mayan spaceships with the machine gun while trying to open cans of tuna with her teeth.  And she likes Nacho Cheese Doritos.  Takes after her daddy.  Hasta.